Which One(s) Are You?; 2014 MLB Odds; Week 12 a Wash Say Books

whining

Thinking like the pros
Recognize These Guys?

by Todd Fuhrman
www.toddstake.com
We all know their kind, we come across them every day. It doesn’t matter if you bet $2 parlay cards or throw around bricks of high society on NFL football like Floyd Mayweather, the
longer you’re in this field you inevitably run into characters whenever you mention the word pointspread. Don’t take this personally, I mean afterall this is as auto-biographical as
any piece you’ll see me write so for all my close friends both in the industry this piece is for you.

Degenerate – If you fall into any 6 categories or more… (thanks to Jake Barnes for this one)

Whiner – He is the ABSOLUTE WORST to watch games with because he’ll find something to bitch about all the damn time. Whether it’s a call, turnover, or coaching blunder he’s going to
find something that’s a grave injustice impacting him and only him. He can have 3 teams covering by 21+ pts and all he focuses on is his team electing to punt on 4th down with 4
minutes left fearing the world’s most improbable backdoor.

Superstitious – He sits in the same seat, wears the same jersey, or has the same pre-game meal all fall long like he’s actually playing in the game. Having fun with bettors like this
is an endless source of enjoyment. Kindly explain to your buddy who fits this criteria he can’t jinx outcomes 2,000 miles away from a game venue with a simple text/tweet. (I may or may
not have to look in the mirror for this stereotype)

System – It would be one thing if this was driven by numbers or statistics but it’s something more in his mind; intangibles. He spends his time looking for signs from the cosmos to
steer him to the winning side. As a result he builds a list of forum posters, newspaper columnists, and tv personalities that are indicators on games to avoid at all costs. The odd
part about all this is his methods seem to be much more successful than the guy stuck watching 24 hours of college football every Saturday looking to exploit the X’s and O’s for
financial gain.

Niche Specialty – When you pick the kind of gambler to grab beers with on a whim, this would be your guy. He’s found an angle to exploit snooker, curling, and challenger tennis yet
doesn’t know the first thing about flagship leagues. Inevitably his biggest challenge is being able to get down enough to sustain his livelihood because most locals don’t even offer
these lines but when they do its for $100 bucks. Dominating a smaller sport is a blessing as well as a curse so always be careful in how you spend your limited handicapping time mr
Arena guy.

Chaser – If the day starts poorly watch out because he’s looking across time zones and countries to figure out how he’ll get out of the hole. Somehow in his mind the later a game
starts, the better bet it automatically becomes. Having a losing day is never an option and the concept of digging out of a small deficit rather than a giant chasm after a day gone
south is a mantra he’s never come close to adopting.

Drunk – He doesn’t know the teams, could care less about the sport, and will take advice from anyone that offers it as long as he finds action. Every now and again he’s been known to
wake up in the morning from a black out binge needing to check his account balance and pocket for tickets just to make sense of the absolute circus that was the day prior. Little to
say rarely does this type of gambler wake up with an uncashed 8 team parlay in his clutches because gambling gods don’t normally reward the reckless.

Football Only – He feels it’s socially acceptable to bet football (pro and college), enter 100 pools, and pick a fantasy team but he’ll thumb his nose at anyone who bets other sports.
I’m not sure if this is comes from a sense of entitlement or superiority complex yet he deserves a swift kick in the nuts for judging everyone else when he limits himself to tight
lines. Little known fact; “football guy” is his own kind of degenerate knowing he has a short window every year to get his entire gambling fix.

Belligerent – I shouldn’t make light of this gambler since he gives all of us a bad name. This is the kind of guy that shouldn’t be betting because when he loses no man, woman, child,
or inanimate object is safe from his verbal wrath. When the fun stops with your betting, time to find a new hobby.

Professional – This guy takes gambling seriously since it’s his livelihood. There’s no loyalty to other bettors, sportsbooks, or team; it’s about finding a soft number and exploiting
it. Anyone who believes the life of a professional gambler is glamorous should think again until they realize all the blood, sweat, tears, and most importantly hours that go into
relying on sports based income.

Weekend Warrior – The game’s on the weekend? Hell yea he’ll bet it (Fridays and Mondays count during the fall) but if the game takes place Tuesday – Thursday you absolutely can’t have
action. Afterall those are his days to play dad, boyfriend, or model employee meaning he has to try and project a level of normalcy for the rest of the world.

Twitter Tailer – Being able to tail someone is a skill in itself however this guy takes it to another level. His main job, instead of handicapping himself, is to find the flavor of the
week and ride it like a thoroughbred. Identifying a hot streak is his holy grail and the irony of the situation he spends as many hours looking for it as most guys do handicapping
their own games.

Middler/Arbster – The approach here is simple; it’s gamble without gambling. Knowing where the market is going before it gets there is what makes this guy smarter than most and a pain
in the ass to sportsbooks. His market entry needs to be perfect for both his initial wager and then when he bets back the other side to maximize the potential middle he’s identified.
Expect to lose a little on most days utilizing this approach but when you hit that glamorous middle it’s all worthwhile.

Doomsday Scenario – He bets his entire life waiting for the world to come crashing down on his shoulders. Losing doesn’t bother him and at points you’re not quite sure a huge winning
score will be of any value to him. Nope, this guy wants a story to tell his buddies and kids some day about how he risked it all and went belly-up betting a 13 team money-line parlay
with his last 5,000. Some guys live for the score, others live for the trainwreck and bad beat stories.

Dumping guy – He knows more than 95% of the people that bet games yet he won’t trust his reads. “Mush is on the other side or everyone on twitter wants to bet the same game so it can’t
possibly be a winner. Better yet the line moved too far in his favor somehow inferring that disaster is imminent. What Dumping Guy doesn’t realize is that every time he buys out of a
good bet it eats away at his confidence as much as it erodes the bankroll.

Self Congratulating – It stopped being about the money a long time ago; he measures his level of success by how hard he can pat himself on the back. Rather than let others stroke his
ego (which he does enjoy) it’s really not necessary when you’re in fact your own biggest fan.

Homer – Doesn’t matter the sport nor who is on the team he’s betting his favorite teams every time they take the field. Hockey, MLS, NBA, MLB, NFL; whatever just fire recklessly at
whatever number the hometown local provides. Good numbers? Forget about it because he’ll lay 3 pts the worst of it just to say he showed support for the good guys.

From the twitterverse…(submitted by Justin Venneri)

Eraser – This guy is covered in chalk dust. Regardless of the scenario, he takes the fave and any spread less than -7 is generally not interesting to him. Also, he loves to talk about
nailing blowouts and somehow never he has an edge on the book because of his \”strategy\” and never loses.

Rain Cloud – No matter what happens, this guy is depressed. Win? Should have bet more. Lose? Must be cursed. This guy can sometimes be a Chaser AND Whiner. Scary guy.

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dodgers2013

2014 Future Odds – MLB

By Sportsbook.com

How to read odds:
5/1 = Bet $100 to win $500
7/2 = Bet $100 to win $350

 

 

2014 Odds to win World Series

Los Angeles Dodgers 5/1
Washington Nationals 8/1
Detroit Tigers 8/1
St Louis Cardinals 10/1
Boston Red Sox 12/1
Cincinnati Reds 14/1
Oakland Athletics 14/1
Texas Rangers 14/1
Los Angeles Angels 14/1
New York Yankees 16/1
Atlanta Braves 16/1
Tampa Bay Rays 18/1
San Francisco Giants 20/1
Cleveland Indians 25/1
Baltimore Orioles 25/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 25/1
Kansas City Royals 30/1
Chicago White Sox 40/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 40/1
Toronto Blue Jays 40/1
Philadelphia Phillies 40/1
Chicago Cubs 50/1
Seattle Mariners 60/1
San Diego Padres 60/1
Milwaukee Brewers 60/1
Colorado Rockies 60/1
New York Mets 100/1
Miami Marlins 100/1
Minnesota Twins 100/1
Houston Astros 200/1

2014 Odds to win NL Pennant

Los Angeles Dodgers 11/5
Washington Nationals 7/2
St Louis Cardinals 6/1
Cincinnati Reds 7/1
Atlanta Braves 8/1
San Francisco Giants 9/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 12/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 20/1
Philadelphia Phillies 20/1
Chicago Cubs 25/1
Milwaukee Brewers 30/1
Colorado Rockies 30/1
San Diego Padres 30/1
Miami Marlins 50/1
New York Mets 50/1

2014 Odds to win AL Pennant

Detroit Tigers 7/2
Boston Red Sox 11/2
Oakland Athletics 13/2
Texas Rangers 13/2
Los Angeles Angels 13/2
New York Yankees 8/1
Tampa Bay Rays 8/1
Baltimore Orioles 11/1
Cleveland Indians 11/1
Kansas City Royals 14/1
Chicago White Sox 20/1
Toronto Blue Jays 20/1
Seattle Mariners 30/1
Minnesota Twins 50/1
Houston Astros 100/1
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wash me

Sports book industry report – Biggest loss dealt by unexpected source

Bettors benefit from hopping on Titans bandwagon

Follow The Linemakers on Twitter

By: Micah Roberts
www.linesmakers.sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – The NFL game most wagered upon in Week 12 was the highly-anticipated Sunday night meeting between the Broncos and Patriots. However, because the game was so evenly wagered
across the board by bettors, it didn’t have the most risk attached to it.

So when the Patriots pulled off a 34-31 overtime win as 2-point underdogs several books showed differing decisions. Some of those differing decisions also had to do with the total.
Under normal circumstances, two teams like the Broncos and Patriots would have close to 75 percent of the action bet on the OVER (54.5). But because of the 20 mph winds and a wind
chill at around 13 degrees, the UNDER was equally attractive and found several takers.

When the final result of the day was posted – giving favorites a 4-8 record against-the-spread with six of the underdogs winning outright – the consensus around town was that the day
was a wash. It’s unusual for the books to have a break-even day when the favorites fall like they did on Sunday, but the sharp money fared very well and after all the public parlays
were tallied up – showing a small profit for the house – the sharp side bets took much of that win away.

The game that swung the pendulum against the sports books was a game that very few on either side of the counter would have guessed when the lines were posted at the beginning of the
week.

Each week when a sports book posts its numbers, it quickly makes a mental note of what games are going to be big for them and what sides they’ll likely need. Most of the time it’s dead
on with the most popular games, but every once in a while a game seems to pop out of nowhere that ends up incurring the most risk.

During Sunday’s Week 12 games, the Titans-Raiders tilt in Oakland evolved into that surprise matchup that ended up being one-sided by both the public and sharp money. No one wanted the
Raiders and everyone got paid when Ryan Fitzpatrick hit Kendall Wright for a 10-yard TD pass with 10 seconds remaining to give the Titans a 23-19 win.

It wasn’t the most wagered upon game, but it ended up showing up for most as the biggest loss. The Titans opened up as 1-point road favorites and closed at -3 by kickoff which was
movement all from sharp money. But the losses really start to mount on the game where the public jumped on board, and that’s the odd part. Why would the public have such a fascination
with the 4-6 Titans?

Much of the reason can be attributed to the time the game kicked off and the amount of wagering opportunities that every bettor in the packed sports books across the city had to choose
from. After the early wave of games, there were only three contests to wager on in the afternoon. Sharp money sided with the Cardinals (-3 -120) at home against the Colts, while the
public sided slightly with the Colts. The Cowboys had just as much support from the public as the Giants (-2.5), but the one team everyone seemed to be loading up for in his second
round of betting was the Titans.

The Titans result was also the second to last game posted of the afternoon wave, which helped several parlays cash in from games played earlier in the day. Some of the more popular
plays on the day that the public had mixed in parlays were the Ravens (-3.5), who throttled the Jets 19-3, and the Steelers (+2.5) at Cleveland. Some sharp money played the Browns, but
just over 70 percent of the parlay action had the Steelers, who took home a 27-11 win.

When looking back on how the day turned out, most books have to consider themselves fortunate that the Panthers didn’t cover the number (-4.5) at Miami because that was the most
popular public team all week heading into Sunday. It didn’t matter that the line was inflated by almost 2.5-points thanks to Carolina’s streak of six straight covers and their dramatic
Monday Night Football win over the Pats. The high spread saved the books and most bettors got hooked as the Panthers’ late touchdown gave them a 20-16 win.

The two biggest upsets of the day didn’t necessarily help the books either. Sharp money was on the Buccaneers at Detroit, pushing the Lions from 9-point favorites down to -7. The
Buccaneers were covering the entire way and came away with a 24-21 victory that paid +300 on the money-line to the few bettors that sided that way.

The biggest money-line payout of the day had the Jaguars as 10.5-point road underdogs at Houston winning outright 13-6. The Jacksonville money-line was set at +450, which again, not
many had. For those that were feeling good about the Jaguars and Buccaneers winning outright, a two-team parlay paid 21-to-1 odds.

On the season now, since we can call week 12 a push, the sports books are 9-1-2 against the bettors as they head into one of the most volatile weekends of the year. While everyone is
talking about Black Friday in other contexts, in the sports book world, Thanksgiving weekend can turn out to be a real blood bath if things start rolling the bettors’ way. The Thursday
NFL games are like having three Monday night football games and if they don’t at least split on the six decisions – side and total of all three – the games attached to Friday, Saturday
and Sunday mushroom into a titanic inferno of risk.

 

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