The Betting Weekend; NBA Power Ratings; Top 50 NCAA FB Power Ratings

Late ‘Chalk’ helps bettors

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

NFL Sunday a Wash

Despite not having a normal college football schedule, Sunday was met with some optimism because there were only a few NFL games that had one-sided public action. The two big public games on the day were the Colts laying 4 1/2-points at home against the Titans and the Falcons laying 3 1/2-points on the road at Carolina.

Not only did the Titans and Panthers cover the number, but overall, the underdogs went 7-3 against the spread in the early games setting the books up for a nice day if the three afternoon games went their
way. Six underdogs won outright in the early games which helped eliminate huge teaser liability and also knocked out big favorite money-line parlays.

The Steelers (-7.5) and Buccaneers (-7.5) were the biggest upsets with large payouts for the few who sided with the Chargers (+330) and Eagles (+310) to win outright

However, the afternoon games turned to be a monster of their own and just about everything the books won from the morning games had been given back as all three favorites won and covered. Making it worse was  that all three games went OVER the total, giving bettors a nice six-team parlay at 40/1 odds for those that were trying to bounce back from getting beat earlier in the day.

At this juncture, most books were slightly ahead or even and their day all rested with the Lions, who were getting six points at Green Bay, but had been seven-point ‘dogs most of the week. The public liked
the Packers, but the weather in the game and a few sharp plays on the Lions kept the number below 7.

Despite jumping out to a 14-0 lead, the Lions ended up losing 27-20. But if there was a silver lining, it was that the game remained UNDER (49) the total.

The sports books have only three NFL weeks left in the year to try and salvage something in the final quarter. Despite the sports book being a small percentage of overall win to the casino, the one variable
that can sometimes push a casino over their projections in each quarter and the year is the volatile sports book business.

Because the book win is so hard to gauge, and nothing like the science in determining table game or slot win, a good month or two is what can be the difference in determining whether or not executives from each department get end-of-year bonuses.

So with three weeks to go, we could say that casino executives’ bonuses might be in the hands of the Raiders, Chiefs, Cardinals and Jaguars, all teams the public love to bet against.

Sports Books get Knocked Out on Saturday

Manny Pacquaio opened as high as a minus-370 favorite two months ago, but by the time the first round started, he had been as low as -180. When Juan Manual Marquez scored the sixth round knock-out, he also knocked out the Las Vegas sports books. “Everyone was on Marquez,” said MGM Resorts Jay Rood. “We had only a little more overall money bet on Marquez, but at odds of over 2-to-1 on him, it wasn’t good enough to come out ahead.”

Usually in the big boxing matches, the ‘dog money always comes in early with the small money, and the larger money laying the favorite waits until the last possible moment at the lowest prices.

“I was surprised,” said Rood. “We just didn’t get that Pacquiao money we anticipated having. It never came to the degree I thought it would, or normally has.”

Beyond paying out at over 2-to-1 prices on Marquez, the small money ranging from $5 to $500 also sided with the propositions that paid the most such as betting under 10.5 rounds at +200 and Marquez to win by knockout at +650 in the 5-way prop (Bet $100 to win $650).

The results varied at sports books across the city, but figured to be more pronounced at the MGM properties since the fight was held at the MGM Grand Arena.

“It was a pretty good size loss, comparable to a bad football Saturday” said Rood.

Just add that to the long on-going list of bettors sticking it to the books for the last six weeks.

In addition to losing the fight, the books also lost Saturday with college basketball favorites coming through, as well as the favorites winning in the top three UFC bouts held in Seattle.

Boxing Keeps Las Vegas Classy

If recommending one night to shoot a commercial that would capture the unrehearsed vibe and feel of what Las Vegas is all about, it would have been Saturday night when we had the diverse mix of rodeo goers and fight fans. When I walked through a few of the casinos on the “South Strip” hours before the fight, I suddenly felt a pride about the city that I don’t think I actually acknowledged to myself or anyone else prior.

I’ve lived in town since 1982 and seen all the massive changes that have happened along the way, but the grandeur of the city is something maybe I’ve always been taken for granted. Or possibly, it’s that
things have changed so much in the past few years that I simply forgot about how special this place is, or was.

That realization came to me as I saw thousands of new faces in town having the time of their life. That’s nothing new, it happens every day in Las Vegas. But on Saturday night, everyone seemed to be dressed with their best and treating the city with class and reverence as if I had been put in a time capsule from 30 years ago as folks prepared to go see Dean Martin or Frank Sinatra. It felt like I was rubbing elbows with James Bond in Monte Carlo.

The main culprit of bringing a little old Las Vegas class into the new was the Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez fight. It seems big fights in Las Vegas are getting rarer each year, and some say boxing is
losing its luster to the hard charging UFC, but there is still nothing that comes close to matching a big fight night in Vegas.

What other event would you see such a unique type of crowd that included Mitt Romney, Snookie, and rapper 50 Cent? Safe to say nowhere, but the combination of boxing and Las Vegas brought them together.

The thing that stood out the most on the day I think was the mix of ages and the clothes worn, and most of all, the pure class. Even the Cowboys with their boots and hats were dressed to a tee. The women all seemed to be adorned in beautiful gowns and most men had suits — some in tuxedos, a rapid change from the younger crowd in their designer t-shirts going to one of the clubs.

We can look back at the growth of Las Vegas as an international destination and pinpoint certain timelines with the classic boxing events. And all it took to recapture some of that lost luster and revisit a
blast to the past was by having another big one.

Between all the smarts executives in the casinos and the boxing promoters who love money, let’s hope they can get together soon to create more so we don’t have to wait too long before we see another
extravaganza like last Saturday night.

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STATFOX NBA POWER RATINGS
www.statfox.com

STATFOX NBA POWER RATINGS
www.statfox.com

Current Power Ratings
To calculate a hypothetical line, subtract the home team’s rating from the visiting team’s, adding 3 points for home court advantage.

Group By Division

Rank Team Rating
1 SAN ANTONIO 108
2 OKLAHOMA CITY 106
3 LA CLIPPERS 102
4 NEW YORK 101
MEMPHIS 101
6 MIAMI 100
7 ATLANTA 99
CHICAGO 99
UTAH 99
10 BOSTON 98
11 DENVER 97
LA LAKERS 97
13 BROOKLYN 96
HOUSTON 96
INDIANA 96
16 GOLDEN STATE 95
MILWAUKEE 95
18 MINNESOTA 94
19 DETROIT 93
SACRAMENTO 93
PHILADELPHIA 93
22 PHOENIX 92
ORLANDO 92
NEW ORLEANS 92
DALLAS 92
26 WASHINGTON 90
27 TORONTO 89
PORTLAND 89
CLEVELAND 89
30 CHARLOTTE 86
League Power Rating Averages

League Rating
EASTERN ATLANTIC 95
EASTERN CENTRAL 94
EASTERN SOUTHEAST 93
WESTERN NORTHWEST 97
WESTERN PACIFIC 95
WESTERN SOUTHWEST 97
Overall 95

Last Updated: 12/9/2012

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STATFOX NCAA FOOTBALL POWER RANKINGS – THE TOP 50

www.statfox.com
Current Power Ratings

To calculate a hypothetical line, subtract the home team’s rating from the visiting team’s, adding 4 points for home field advantage.

Group By Conference

Rank Team Rating
1 OREGON 66
2 ALABAMA 65
3 TEXAS A&M 59
4 STANFORD 57
OKLAHOMA ST 57
6 NOTRE DAME 56
WISCONSIN 56
GEORGIA 56
LSU 56
10 KANSAS ST 55
OKLAHOMA 55
12 FLORIDA ST 54
13 USC 53
14 OREGON ST 52
FLORIDA 52
16 CLEMSON 51
17 BAYLOR 50
OHIO ST 50
19 TCU 49
S CAROLINA 49
BOISE ST 49
MICHIGAN 49
23 ARIZONA ST 48
24 TEXAS 47
UCLA 47
VANDERBILT 47
27 W VIRGINIA 46
PENN ST 46
29 PITTSBURGH 45
BYU 45
31 CINCINNATI 44
FRESNO ST 44
MICHIGAN ST 44
MISSISSIPPI ST 44
N CAROLINA 44
NEBRASKA 44
37 MIAMI 43
GEORGIA TECH 43
ARIZONA 43
UCF 43
41 UTAH ST 42
WASHINGTON 42
NORTHWESTERN 42
OLE MISS 42
N ILLINOIS 42
46 MISSOURI 41
IOWA ST 41
ARKANSAS ST 41
SYRACUSE 41
TULSA 41

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