So You Wanna Be a Pro ; Tells Provide the Crucial Edge

poker pro
A Foolproof Plan to Becoming a Professional Poker Player

by Daniel Negreanu
www.cardplayer.com

 

I think the most important aspect of dealing with kids like this is to have an honest, coaching conversation with them. One that illustrates the complexities involved in making a living gambling. You don’t want to come from, “It’s not possible,” because obviously it is. There are thousands of professional poker players in the world, but I can’t think of a handful of pros that are successful today that are not treating it like a serious job and working hard both playing and studying the game.

So my intention in this coaching conversation is to really illustrate what it takes to make a living doing this. To have them fully understand what it really looks like, but doing so in such a way where it’s they themselves that are realizing it, rather than me preaching to them that they shouldn’t bother trying.

I start by explaining to them that a professional poker player is a small business owner, in the business of entertaining their customers (players who aren’t as skilled as they are). Most every successful business has a mission statement. Since this is a one man small business let’s call it a vision statement.

The vision statement should be one to two sentences on exactly what you want to see for the company. You are the company of course, so I would encourage you to write this vision statement now. It could look something like this:

My vision in poker is to use it as a vehicle to create abundance in my life. To passionately dedicate myself to learning, improving, and developing my skills, while also being financially responsible.

That’s just one example, you need to write one that speaks to you personally because you will be coming back to this statement often. It is the statement that will guide you during your career. The next step is to get a little more specific and quantify what abundance looks like for you. A concrete yearly income you are hoping to achieve. For this example, let’s use $100,000 as the goal.

So now we have the vision statement and the goal, next up is the HOW. The real plan. Drawing from our vision statement, we need to make sure that our plan is financially responsible and that we are continuing to develop our skills away from the table. To hit the $100,000 a year mark, it also requires that you are able to gauge how much money you can expect to make hourly in the game you are playing.

For example, let’s say your bankroll and skill level have you playing $2-$5 no limit hold’em at Bellagio. It’s important to know how much that game is worth to you. The best place to start would be to ask around and see what the best player in that game can expect to make, then deduct about 30% from that total. Yes, you may become the best player in that game, but until you have proven you can be, lets assume you are still in the learning phase and shouldn’t expect to jump out of the gate and be the best player at the table.

Based on what I’ve heard, the best players in that game may make as much as $30 an hour. Deduct 30% from that, if all goes well you can target $21 an hour. To make the math easier, let’s just make it $20 flat per hour. Since our goal is to make $100,000 a year, now we can have a rough idea of how many hours we actually need to spend at the table playing poker. That comes to 5000 hours a year playing. If we break down that further, that comes to 417 hours a month, which breaks down to over 100 hours a week! This is before we even add all of the study hours required to be in line with our vision statement. For ever 10 hours of play, you should add at least two hours of study time. Add on another 1000 hours a year of study, which boils down to 14 hours a week.

So now we have you playing 105 hours a week, and studying around 14 hours a week for a total close to 120 hours in a week. Do you know how many hours are in a week? 168. If you plan on sleeping 8 hours a night, that’s another 56 hours a week. With work/study at 120 and sleep at 56, that totals 176 hours a week.

Uh oh, Houston we have a problem! While your vision statement was quite clear as was your goal, your plan just isn’t feasible. It’s just not humanly possible unless you plan on skipping out on sleep entirely and having absolutely no social life whatsoever! No matter how good you play, your plan is destined to fail and it will.

So the most obvious thing to adjust is your expectations on your yearly income. Maybe lowering it from $100,000 down to $50,000 a year. To save time, let’s assume you can make a plan work where you make $50,000 a year working very hard. Will this allow you to create abundance in your life? Maybe, maybe not. That depends on your monthly nut, meaning how much your expenses cost you monthly. We are also going to assume you are a law abiding citizen who pays their income tax, so right off the bat let’s whack of 30% of that $50,000 a year. That leaves you with $35,000 to spend over a 12 month period, or about $2900 a month.

You want a car, you will have rent to pay, and I assume you also may want to eat food at some point. Maybe even have a telephone and wifi in your apartment. So let’s say you find an apartment for $1200 a month, spend another $300 on your car and gas, and then $1000 a month for food. That’s $2500 total, leaving you $400 a month to cover EVERYTHING else! Not to mention the fact that you need to maintain a bankroll big enough to deal with the inevitable swings. Heaven forbid you ever have to fix your car or get a speeding ticket!

If you aren’t playing with a bankroll big enough to play the games you want and live the lifestyle that you want, then what is your plan if you run out of funds? How will you stay in action? Borrowing from friends is one option, but how will you ever build a bankroll big enough to pay them back? At best, you have an extra $400 a month. If you borrowed $5000 it would take two years of everything going perfectly for you to pay them back. How many people do you know that will loan you $5000 on the hope of being paid back in two years if all goes well? So you will get staked you say? Ok, so now someone is putting up the money for you to play in the $2-$5 game and you get to keep 50% of your winnings. Now you will also have to slash your monthly earnings to $1450 a month while your living expenses are at $2500. You are still underwater. Well what if I get staked to play higher limits? OK, so you are going to find a backer to put you in $5-$10 games where you have no experience, there are tougher players, and your win rate isn’t guaranteed to be any higher than the $2-$5? Good luck with that.

This is all painting a dark picture by design. It is the reality that most of you who are hoping to become professional poker players face. One that can’t be ignored. Is it possible that you have the work ethic, the modest monthly nut, the skill set, the emotional stability, the drive, the will, the bankroll, etc. Sure, but don’t be fooled. There are maybe 2%-5% of people that can make this lifestyle work. Less than 5% of ball players in the minor leagues will ever make the big leagues. Even less high school football players putting on weight in the hopes of an NFL career will make it. There are many careers where the odds are heavily stacked against you. There are heroes, those special people who have “it” and find a way to make it, but most will fail. This holds true in poker as well.

My intention wasn’t to discourage you from chasing your dreams, whatever they may be. My intention was to illustrate to you that it will require HARD WORK. It will not be as easy as it looks on TV. Are you willing to put in all that hard work, all the while knowing that even if you do, it still may not be enough?

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crazy facve
Poker tells give an edge against opponents

by George Epstein
www.gamingtoday.com

In conversation, many of us have tells without realizing it.In poker, tells are mannerisms, physical actions, facial expressions, words, body motions – anything that can give a player information about an opponent’s hand.

It’s no secret tells can gain you an edge over your opponents. Then, you can make better decisions in your favor. Of course, it can just as easily work the other way around. You could have one or more tells that work to your disadvantage when an opponent recognizes it, and then makes decisions in his own favor – not yours.

Not to change the subject; we all enjoy good jokes. There are even some related to the game of poker. You may have heard or read this poker joke (slightly modified for our GT readers):
A member of the Claude Pepper Seniors Poker Group was surprised when he was invited to a friend’s home to play poker. There, seated at the dining room table, was his friend, five other men and a dog, all playing Texas hold’em. After being seated, he watched the game. Then, he commented on the remarkable performance of the dog.

“He’s not so smart as all that,” the dog’s owner, one of the other guests, replied in disgust. “Every time he gets a good hand, he wags his tail.”

Funny story, but it makes a good point: Many of us have tells without realizing it. These inadvertent motions, facial expressions, even our verbal utterances, can communicate information to our opponents (the “enemy”) that can really hurt us. Giving your opponents information about your hand or intentions, can cost you a pot, or make it more expensive when you lose.

My Big Tell: Some years ago, my wife and I were visiting Las Vegas. We played poker at the old Flamingo Casino where we were staying. We made it a practice to play at different tables, so as not to compete against each other. One evening, she came over to my table. Standing a few feet behind the dealer, she beckoned to me to come over. Her facial expression suggested something was of concern to her (a tell?). I got up and walked over.

I should explain that in those days, smoking was acceptable at the tables. I so enjoyed smoking a long “El Ropo” cigar while playing poker. (Perhaps it was a throwback to my five-and-dime college poker games in the dorm and fraternity house.)

As I approached, she turned away from the poker table and calmly said: “George, do you know you have a tell – a BIG tell?” I promptly replied, “Oh, come on, you got to be kidding.” “No,” she replied, “every time you have a good hand, the tip of your cigar glows bright.” I thought a moment. “By golly, I think you are right!”

Like the dog’s wagging tail, that tell must have been costing me. That’s when I quit smoking. Good motivation! (Besides, I knew it was not good for my health.)

In hindsight, it’s hard to say how much benefit I gained after learning of my “lighted-cigar tell.”

Stop and think for a moment or two: Let me ask if you have any tells? I had never imagined my lighted cigar could provide information about my hand to my “enemy” at the table. Today, I often give pause while seated at the table, to remind myself of that tell.

And then I ask myself: “George, do I have any others?”

The dog in the joke couldn’t help wagging his tail when he was pleased. Likewise, it was natural for me to take a deep puff when I made a good hand, causing my cigar to glow brightly.
How about you?

Of course, if you are playing at my table, you are welcome to have all the tells you want – even if you don’t realize it. Be my guest.

“The Engineer,” a noted author and teacher in Greater Los Angeles, is a member of the Seniors Poker Hall of Fame. Contact George at GeorgeEpstein@GamingToday.com.

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