MLB Win Totals ; Super Bowl Futures

dodgers

Breaking down some MLB season win totals
by Micah Roberts
www.gamingtoday.com
San Diego’s Andrew Cashner is coveted by a few teamsMost baseball fans begin to get pumped for the upcoming season when pitchers and catchers report early to spring training, but here in Las Vegas it’s a little different.

Our baseball juices get flowing when season win totals are posted.

On Friday, up north in Reno, the Atlantis sports book will post the first totals in the state and then on Sunday at 11 a.m., the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook will post their numbers. Over the past few seasons there have massive disparities between the two opinions, and after a few weeks both numbers sort of blend together as bettors bet them.

The Westgate will also be posting a ton of propositions such as odds to each division and 64 different totals on individual player season wins and home runs. Two weeks ago they posted odds to hit the most home runs in 2015 with Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Abreu as 8-to-1 co-favorites. Stanton has been bet down to 6-1.
I’ve got most of my work done on each team and have my own opinions on how many games they’ll win, so let’s throw a few out there. This isn’t what I think the season win total should be, but where I think they’ll finish.

Boston (2015 prediction – 77-85): In 2012 the Red Sox finished dead last in the AL East and bounced back to win their third World Series in 10 seasons, and they’re in a similar situation this year as they come off their worst season (71-91) since 1965. They brought in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, but didn’t do much for their rotation where Rick Porcello is now considered the ace.

Porcello was the No. 5 guy in the Tigers’ rotation and had a career year, but I have a feeling Fenway won’t be kind to him. Overall, there are just too many question marks, including age, health and a group of young outfielders I don’t believe are their future. Ultimately, their starters will be their downfall and they’ll be battling with Tampa Bay for the worst record in the division.

LA Dodgers (89-75)

It’ll be hard not to win 85 games with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but there are several other components factored that suggest the Dodgers won’t be as good as last year. The first thing is the level of competition just got raised in the NL West with the Padres elevating themselves as real contenders.

The signing of James Shields yesterday makes them a strong contender to win the division. Meanwhile, the Dodgers got worse offensively as they lost two power sources in Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez while also losing Dee Gordon’s 64 stolen bases.

The Dodgers offensive hopes rest with rookie Joc Peterson being the same type of player he was in AA last year and that SS Jimmy Rollins and 2B Howie Kendrick show some leadership and add some pop. I didn’t get the Rollins signing. He comes off a .243 season in a good hitter’s park at Philly and goes to a great pitcher’s park in LA.

Rollins is also 36 years old. Unless they find more ways to get Scott Van Slyke and Justin Turner into the lineup, I think the Dodgers will struggle to score runs this season. Hard to believe the expansion Marlins have won two World Series while the Dodgers’ last title came in 1988.

San Diego (88-74)

With Shields added to an already good rotation of Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy, the Padres are going to do some good things in 2015. In addition to adding some pop with Kemp, they also inked Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Derek Norris. Don’t expect San Diego to be anywhere near dead last in runs scored like they were last season.

Chi. White Sox (79-83)

The addition of David Robertson to the closer role shores up a major area of concern, but I’m still not sold on the rotation, even with the addition of Jeff Samardzija. Adam LaRoche may add some protection for Abreu, and Melky Cabrera was also a nice pick-up, but the rest of their lineup doesn’t excite me

Chicago Cubs (84-78)

Pitching wins in baseball and the Cubs have lots of it in their rotation with Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel and Travis Wood. The bullpen is still a bit sketchy, and it’s tough to put high expectations on some of their young hitters to step up and produce right away, but I think they will. They should be right in the mix of things with St. Louis and Pittsburgh in the NL Central all summer.

Next week we’ll discuss a few more teams and look at the actual numbers the Westgate posts Sunday.
Gaming Notes

Nevada sports books ended up winning $3.3 million from the Super Bowl for a sluggish 2.8 percent return, but those figures are influenced greatly due to future book win.
If we were to back out all future wagers, we might be looking at close to $2 million in losses for the big game. The Strip properties do huge business with the futures from the time they post them because of the hundreds of thousands of guests filtering through their rooms. Souvenir Super Bowl future tickets have become a more fun item to bring home than those crummy Las Vegas t-shirts.

When one of the favorites win, as the Patriots did, books can expect to keep up to 60 percent of all wagers. For action on the game that occurred with the two week window, it’s safe to say the books lost to the game.

Hail Caesar!

It was just a few weeks ago I was marveling at the noticeable change in Caesars Palace’s directive to offer fair odds on a consistent basis with their futures at a 35 percent theoretic hold or lower when I noticed they’ve also expanded their wagering menu.

Their latest expansion was delving into odds to win the 2015 CFL Grey Cup, Tour de France and weekly European Tour golf odds. They’re not quite in the category of the Westgate and William Hill yet, but who is.

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas race and sports book director, one of The Linemakers on SportingNews.com , and longtime motorsports columnist and sports analyst at GamingToday. Follow Micah on Twitter @MicahRoberts7 Contact Micah at MicahRoberts@GamingToday.com.

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packers
2016 Super Bowl Futures Betting Guide

By: Glenn Greene – Exclusive to osga.com

 

We’ve barely forgiven Coach Pete Carroll for a memorable Super Bowl play and our outlets in Las Vegas and some top online sportsbooks have already called an early line for next year’s trophy. Is it time to take advantage of possible oversight in bookmaker judgment or better wait till perhaps next November to make the decision? Overall, I say excercising patience is the proven path but in the case of a few NFL teams we might want to consider plunking down a few dollars for the 2016 Super Bowl Champion ASAP.

For example, the Super Bowl future betting odds listed at well-known sportsbooks like Bovada.lv are what oddsmakers choose to offer the market. They are not similar to a “pari-mutuel” pool as in horse racing, where a 15-30% vigorish is taken and odds set per customer action. Adding up player investment they are quite favorable to the house, knowing the majority of NFL teams have no legitimate chance but do take loyal home team support and long-shot chance action.

Teaming Up

Therfore, I cannot fathom why anyone would waste their money wagering the Tennesse Titans at 150-1 to win the Super Bowl or Jacksonville Jaguars at only 200-1. An actuary might put their chances closer to 50,000-1 or the odds of Ray Rice winning the next NFL Man of the Year trophy. But if someone is foolish enough to buy it, sportsbooks will post it.

Super Bowl future bettingConversely, the favorites may not offer the best “value” on the menu either. Currently the Seattle Seahawks are listed at 11/2 odds but many questions must be answered to put their chances of winning above a dozen legitimate contenders. Will Marshawn Lynch be equally motivated next season or will his off-field antics continue to be a distraction? Have the Seahawks indeed found their necessary receiver tandem? Will the Super Bowl finish haunt them come playoff time next season with naysayers and the media breathing down their back?

The New England Patriots are a tempting 6/1 but we’ve learned the odds are against any team repeating in the Super Bowl. Perhaps that was part of a curse against the Seahawks at the goal line this season?

If you’re speculating for good value and want to take a risk now, the oddsmakers seem to have done their homework. The “what have you done for me lately” factor is very evident with the Denver Broncos a surprising 14-1 selection while Peyton Manning makes his decision to stay on board or retire. The Broncos playoff flop is also echoed in the Philadelphia Eagles future odds, which have them as a semi-longshot at 22-1. We recall the Birds not even making the playoffs last season while many were discussing a #1 NFC seeding on December 1st. Questions remain if injured QB Nick Foles will be their healthy #1 starter again and can they compete with the Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

Speaking of the Packers, they are a current second betting choice in the NFC at 7/1 and overall third choice in the NFL to win the Super Bowl. They may not remain there and likely could rise in odds if last season’s betting pattern repeats again this season.

Timing Up

America’s Team, of course that would be the Dallas Cowboys jumped out to an early 6-1 season and captured the public’s wagering hearts by dropping from a 30-1 outsider to as little as 3/1 second choice for the Super Bowl in mid-October. The Cowboys are now 12/1 for the 2016 prize and identical circumstances could happen again with a strong start and loyal Cowboy bettors onboard. The major reason why it’s usually best to WAIT until at least near mid-season to investing in Super Bowl future wagering.

Let’s remember football fans, it was none other than the Seattle Seahawks who lost to the St. Louis Rams 28-26 on October 19th to give them a hugely disappointing 3-3 record and many articles claiming they were on a serious decline. Their Super Bowl Future Odds climbed to as high as 10-1 in Vegas and some notable offshore sportsbook outlets.

Only an unforgettable, poorly-timed slant pass with 30 Super Bowl seconds to go prevented some from cashing one of the best foresighted bets ever. Ouch . . . hope you weren’t one of the unfortunate victims of that historical judgement. But maybe you can brag you’re a loyal Tom Brady supporter. The Pats chances were deflated by many in Kansas City when the Chiefs destroyed the Pats 41-14 on September 29th. Their odds subsequently zoomed from 3/1 to 6/1 the following week.

So if you’re going to play Super Bowl Futures, like the stock market, the big winner is often not just who to invest on but also WHEN.

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