Preview Pats vs. Ravens; 49′ers vs Saints
AFC Championship Preview: Ravens at Patriots
By: Steve Bennett – StatFox
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BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-4) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-3)
AFC Championship
Kickoff: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -7.5, Total: 50.5
The Ravens try to win a playoff game in Foxboro for the second time in three years when they face the Patriots for the AFC Championship on Sunday afternoon.
New England is 6-1 SU (2-4-1 ATS) in seven meetings with the Ravens since they relocated to Baltimore in 1996. But the one loss came in January 2010 when the Ravens destroyed the Pats 33-14 in the first round of the playoffs. Ray Rice scored on an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage and the defense forced four Tom Brady turnovers (3 INT, 1 fumble) in the blowout. They played again last season, with the Patriots winning 23-20 in overtime despite two Brady interceptions. But New England was clearly the better team last weekend, pummeling Denver 45-10 behind Brady’s 6 TD passes, while the Ravens needed four Houston turnovers to edge the Texans 20-13. Can the Patriots get back to the Super Bowl and cover the big spread, or will Baltimore shock them again on their home turf in the postseason? The StatFox Pro Football Pass gets you all the insight you need for Sunday’s games and, of course, the Super Bowl in Indianapolis.
The Patriots have played seven straight games Over the Total and this pair of four-star FoxSheets trends also backs the OVER for Sunday’s game.
Play Over – Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) – after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season. (29-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.9%, +24.6 units. Rating = 4*).
NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 36.2, OPPONENT 18.7 – (Rating = 4*).
The Ravens are 9-0 at home this year, but are just 4-4 (SU and ATS) on the road. Baltimore’s offense sputtered Sunday versus Houston, gaining just 227 total yards (3.6 yards per play). Rice was held to a mere 60 yards on 21 carries, failing to gain 10 yards on any of his rushing attempts. But he has loved playing New England in his career, piling up 350 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) and 2 TD, while adding 87 yards on 13 catches in three lifetime meetings. Second-string RB Ricky Williams rushed for 27 yards on six carries against the Texans and also has a long history of running over Patriots defenders with 917 yards (3.9 YPC) and 7 TD in 13 career games versus New England. The Pats run defense has been decent this year (118 YPG), but has allowed a hefty 4.5 yards per carry.
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco has won playoff games in each of the past four seasons, but he hasn’t always been great, completing just 53% of his passes for 5.81 YPA, 6 TD and 7 INT. In the big playoff win at New England two years ago, Flacco attempted just 10 passes all game, going 4-of-10 for 34 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Last week against Houston he made some nice throws, but he finished 14-of-27 (52%) for 176 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT, and took five sacks. His favorite target was WR Anquan Boldin who caught four balls for 73 yards and scored his first touchdown since Nov. 20. The Patriots defense allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this year (294 YPG), but only gave up 108 passing yards on 9-of-26 completions to Broncos QB Tim Tebow on Saturday.
Brady has a 15-5 record in his playoff career, throwing for 239 passing YPG (6.66 YPA), 36 TD and 17 INT. He was incredible in Saturday night’s win, completing 77% of his passes (26-of-34) for 363 yards, 6 TD and 1 INT. Three of those TD tosses were to TE Rob Gronkowski who now has a ridiculous 20 touchdowns in 17 games this year. Gronkowski caught 10 passes against Denver for 145 yards. WR Deion Branch (3 rec, 85 yds), WR Wes Welker (6 rec, 55 yds) and TE Aaron Hernandez (4 rec, 55 yds) each had one touchdown reception against the Broncos. Branch was the most targeted receiver in last year’s OT win over Baltimore, catching nine of his 12 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown. But the Ravens were fourth in passing defense during the regular season (196 YPG) and allowed a league-low 58.8 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks.
Despite the excellent pass defense, the Ravens have struggled trying to stop the run lately, allowing 125 rushing YPG (4.4 YPC) in the past four games, considerably more than the 86 rushing YPG (3.3 YPC) they surrendered in the first 13 games this year. New England has also done a better job rushing the football in the past four games, totaling 544 yards (136 YPG). Hernandez led the team Saturday with 61 yards on just five carries. RB Danny Woodhead added 25 yards on just four attempts, and also led the Patriots with 63 yards (5.7 YPC) in last year’s OT loss to Baltimore.
It’s no secret the Ravens won Sunday because of going +4 in the turnover battle (and committing zero penalties), but that’s not likely to happen against New England. In the past nine games, the Patriots have turned the ball over just five times. And if Baltimore fails to sack Tom Brady like it failed to sack Houston quarterback T.J. Yates, it could be a long afternoon for the Ravens defenders.
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Divisional Playoff Preview: Saints at 49ers
By: Steve Bennett – StatFox
Stat Fox is the best place to find the information you need www.statfox.com
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3)
NFC Playoffs – Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 47
The Saints try to win their 10th straight game when they visit former division rival San Francisco with a berth in the NFC Championship Game at stake.
This will be a classic battle of offense versus defense. The 49ers defense is elite against the run, but they struggled to stop the pass when facing the league’s top quarterbacks. Dallas (432 yards), Philadelphia (416), Detroit (293), N.Y. Giants (311) and Pittsburgh (330) all moved the ball in the air against a secondary that’s more about creating turnovers than limiting yards. Saints QB Drew Brees could take full advantage of that. San Francisco will try to control the clock with its power running game against a Saints defense that doesn’t defend the run well (4.9 YPC allowed). Who will win this matchup of the top two ATS records in the league, New Orleans (13-4 ATS, 77%) or San Francisco (11-4-1 ATS, 73%)? The StatFox Pro Football Pass was 3-1 ATS during Wild Card Weekend. Click here to get all the insight you need for this game and throughout the NFL playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl.
The past four Saints games have all gone Over the Total, with an average of 64.5 points per game. This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the OVER for Saturday’s game.
Play Over – Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ORLEANS) – after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).
These teams met in Week 2 of the 2010 season, when the pre-Jim Harbuagh Niners were embarking on another disappointing year. They outplayed the Saints, holding Brees to 254 passing yards and out-gaining New Orleans 417-287. San Francisco led 14-9 early in the second half, but four turnovers did them in a 25-22 loss.
Brees has been incredible this season with 5,942 passing yards (350 YPG), 49 TD and 14 INT including his brilliant performance against Detroit last week (33-of-43, 466 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT). New Orleans piled up an NFL playoff record 626 total yards in the win over the Lions. But the Saints are a different team away from their home turf (27.2 PPG, 4-4 ATS). But Brees has just 9 TD and 6 INT on grass surfaces this year, compared to 40 TD and 8 INT on turf. However, Brees has had no problem controlling the winds at Candlestick Park, completing 59-of-77 passes (77%) for 590 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT in two career games in San Francisco. But Brees doesn’t have to win this game all by himself with a rushing attack averaging 175 YPG on 5.3 YPC in the past four games. Three different players rushed for 45+ yards against the Lions: Pierre Thomas (66 yards, 8.3 YPC), Darren Sproles (51 yards, 5.1 YPC) and Chris Ivory (47 yards, 3.6 YPC). This versatile ground game will be key against a 49ers team that led the NFL with 77 rushing YPG allowed.
The Saints allowed 380 passing yards in their win over Detroit last week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing considering they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 300+ yards in their previous game this year. But the 49ers don’t try to beat teams through the air, attempting the second-fewest passes in the league this season (28.2 attempts per game). San Francisco quarterbacks have thrown only five interceptions all season, but have been sacked 44 times (7th-most in the NFL). QB Alex Smith has played nearly every snap, and has been much more effective in his home stadium (99.8 rating, 7.75 YPA, 12 TD, 3 INT) than he was on the road (82.7 rating, 6.46 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT). Smith is 0-3 all-time against the Saints though, sporting a 65.0 passer rating (6.17 YPA, 3 TD, 5 INT).
San Francisco is an unbeaten 7-0-1 ATS at home this season and 9-1 ATS on a grass surface. Much of that has to do with a rushing offense chewing up 128 rushing YPG (8th in the NFL) led by Frank Gore’s 1,211 yards on 4.3 YPC. In the past two meetings against the Saints, Gore has 194 rushing yards (5.4 YPC), 87 receiving yards and 2 TD. Rookie Kendall Hunter has also stepped up in the past two games, rushing for 149 yards on 28 carries (5.3 YPC).
Another reason the 49ers have 13 wins this year, is due to their lack of turnovers. They have the fewest giveaways in the NFL (10), including a current ride of five straight games without an offensive turnover. And the defense has forced 12 turnovers during this turnover-less streak. The Saints also take care of the football very well, finishing tied for the fourth-fewest giveaways in the league (17).
