Raise – Maybe?; A $2.5 Million Bluff
Even with limit hold’em poker, we’re raising!
by George Epstein
Read George at the excellent gaming website www.gamingtoday.com
With today’s column on “13 Reasons for Raising,” we will have discussed 11.
Playing limit hold’em, in a late position, you entered the pot holding J-10 suited, along with four opponents. The texture of the table is loose-passive – lots of players to see the flop and relatively little raising. That’s to your liking.
Thus far, the poker gods have been good and after an hour at the table, you are ahead.
The flop brings three unconnected medium-small cards, rainbow. You have three-to-a-flush and two overcards to the board. An early-position bets out and is called by two other opponents. It’s your turn to declare. Think how you should play your hand here.
Since there have been no raises pre-flop or on the flop, you reason that pairing one of your hole cards would likely put you in the lead, especially if no ace, king or queen falls on the board. Never mind the possibility of catching runner, runner to make a jack-high flush.
You plan to stay to see the turn and possibly the river.
Maybe you should raise!
With six outs (three Js and three 10s), and the turn and river cards yet to come, the 4-2 Rule says you will catch your big pair about 24% (6 x 4) of the time. So the odds against you are about 3-to-1 (76%-to-24%). Look at the pot. There are about 30 chips representing the lower end of the game limits.
It will cost three chips to call, or six to raise. Either way, the pot odds are much higher than the card odds – 10-1 if you call, 5-1 to raise. It’s a Positive Expectation bet for both options.
But there is one thing you can gain only if you raise! After your raise, any opponents who remain in the pot will have due respect for you; indeed, they are somewhat scared by your raise. They reason that you must hold a big hand; the flop must have hit you. You can almost hear your opponent thinking: “He must have hit a set.”
That’s reasonable, especially since you have earned a tight image (by folding so many previous hands as you played only those hands that meet the Hold’em Algorithm criteria.) “Yes, he must have a set.” Why else, they contemplate, would you have raised on the flop?
Still, most if not all who have made the bet will call your raise to “protect their bets,” hoping to connect on the turn. You have gained control of the game. Since your opponents fear and respect you, after the dealer lays down the turn card, they all check to you.
Now it’s your option.
If the turn didn’t improve your hand, you can check along and get a free river card, thus having saved one small bet. Over the course of the session, that can add up and be the difference between going home a winner or a loser.
Alternatively, you might elect to contine to bet even with your unimproved hand. Your goal is to force opponents to fold, leaving the pot for you. It’s a semi-bluff: Even if an opponent calls, you still have a reasonable chance to catch the winning hand on the river.
And, if the river card fails you, you can try another big bet as part of your Esther Bluff on the river.
Raising to gain outs
Using this hand (J-10 suited), your overcards are “good outs” only if there is no opponent with a higher card in the hole – A, K or Q – with a jack or 10. Raising on the flop may force out opponents holding higher overcards, such as K or Q-10 and possibly others (very tight players) with even higher overcards.
To that extent, as opponents toss their hands into the muck, your overcards become more viable as true outs. And the probability of winning the pot when you pair up is that much greater.
(“The Engineer” is a noted author and teacher of poker. Contact him by email at geps222@msn.com).
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Sam Trickett Scoops $2.5 Million with Huge Bluff in Macau Cash Game
By: Charles, courtesy of Poker News Report
Read more interesting news at the poker website www.pokernewsreport.com
In a stone cold bluff in high-stakes ring game action in Macau recently, Sam Trickett showed why he is worthy of being regarded as one of the best all-around players in the game today, taking down a massive $2.5 million pot holding nothing but a keen knowledge of his opponent’s playing style.
Trickett left Macau to participate in the Epic Poker Tour $2.3 million richer thanks to bluffing his way to the $2,493,900 pot. Upon his departure, the blinds at Macau’s big cash game were 10,000-20,000 in Hong Kong dollars, which equates to $1,300-$2,600 in U.S. currency.
Trickett had U.S. $1.9 million at the table when he received 8♥ 6♥ in hole cards and raised the pot to $13,000 from the button and called the small blind player’s raise to $40,000. When the flop came 10♠ 7♦ 3♣, his opponent checked and called when Trickett fired $60,000 into the pot. Another check from his opponent followed the 3♥ turn, prompting Trickett to bet $140,000, only to see his rival check-raise to $490,000. Finally, a river jack was met with another opening check by Trickett’s competitor, which saw Trickett wager a whopping $1,310,000 holding nothing but his seemingly worthless 8♥ 6♥ to take down the pot that was just $6,100 shy of $2.5 million.
In explaining his rationale for the winning bluff, Trickett reasoned that his aggressive opponent tended to continuation bet way too many flops. So when his rival checked on the flop, Trickett was expecting the player to fold following Trickett’s $60,000 bet after the flop. When the normally aggressive post-flop player called, Trickett put him on either pocket eights, a seven, or possibly holding a hand with an ace and another high card. Seeing the 3♥ hit the board on the turn, Trickett said he was determined to bluff his opponent all the way.
“I bet HK $1.1 million and he raised me to HK $3.8 million,” Trickett explained. “I think he’s trying to rep pocket sevens or tens here, but I didn’t think he would ever play them like that–he would have just bet on the flop. He would try to build the pot because he has no showdown value because he’s out of position. So I’m pretty sure he’s bluffing and I just call, which is how I would play it if I had a full house. I had it in my head that he would never bluff again on the river. Sure enough, he checked the jack on the river and I moved all-in for about HK $8 million into a pot of a similar amount. He folded after a 30-second tank.”
Trickett enjoyed a fantastic 2011, becoming UK’s all-time top tournament money winner following his victory in November at the Partouche Poker Tour Main Event in Cannes for €1 million ($1,365,680). With that title, the 25-year-old pro increased his career tournament winnings to about $6.5 million, surpassing Dave “Devilfish” Ulliott at $6,006,899.
After telling the story of the winning hand, Trickett admitted that the “biggest bluff” of his career would probably never be matched in the future. But then again, knowing the high-stakes action in Macau’s big cash game, you never know what might happen!
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