NFL PLayoff Previews
Divisional Playoff Preview: Saints at 49ers
By: Steve Bennett – StatFox
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3)
NFC Playoffs – Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 47
The Saints try to win their 10th straight game when they visit former division rival San Francisco with a berth in the NFC Championship Game at stake.
This will be a classic battle of offense versus defense. The 49ers defense is elite against the run, but they struggled to stop the pass when facing the league’s top quarterbacks. Dallas (432 yards), Philadelphia (416), Detroit (293), N.Y. Giants (311) and Pittsburgh (330) all moved the ball in the air against a secondary that’s more about creating turnovers than limiting yards. Saints QB Drew Brees could take full advantage of that. San Francisco will try to control the clock with its power running game against a Saints defense that doesn’t defend the run well (4.9 YPC allowed). Who will win this matchup of the top two ATS records in the league, New Orleans (13-4 ATS, 77%) or San Francisco (11-4-1 ATS, 73%)? The StatFox Pro Football Pass was 3-1 ATS during Wild Card Weekend. Click here to get all the insight you need for this game and throughout the NFL playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl.
The past four Saints games have all gone Over the Total, with an average of 64.5 points per game. This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the OVER for Saturday’s game.
Play Over – Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ORLEANS) – after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).
These teams met in Week 2 of the 2010 season, when the pre-Jim Harbuagh Niners were embarking on another disappointing year. They outplayed the Saints, holding Brees to 254 passing yards and out-gaining New Orleans 417-287. San Francisco led 14-9 early in the second half, but four turnovers did them in a 25-22 loss.
Brees has been incredible this season with 5,942 passing yards (350 YPG), 49 TD and 14 INT including his brilliant performance against Detroit last week (33-of-43, 466 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT). New Orleans piled up an NFL playoff record 626 total yards in the win over the Lions. But the Saints are a different team away from their home turf (27.2 PPG, 4-4 ATS). But Brees has just 9 TD and 6 INT on grass surfaces this year, compared to 40 TD and 8 INT on turf. However, Brees has had no problem controlling the winds at Candlestick Park, completing 59-of-77 passes (77%) for 590 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT in two career games in San Francisco. But Brees doesn’t have to win this game all by himself with a rushing attack averaging 175 YPG on 5.3 YPC in the past four games. Three different players rushed for 45+ yards against the Lions: Pierre Thomas (66 yards, 8.3 YPC), Darren Sproles (51 yards, 5.1 YPC) and Chris Ivory (47 yards, 3.6 YPC). This versatile ground game will be key against a 49ers team that led the NFL with 77 rushing YPG allowed.
The Saints allowed 380 passing yards in their win over Detroit last week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing considering they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 300+ yards in their previous game this year. But the 49ers don’t try to beat teams through the air, attempting the second-fewest passes in the league this season (28.2 attempts per game). San Francisco quarterbacks have thrown only five interceptions all season, but have been sacked 44 times (7th-most in the NFL). QB Alex Smith has played nearly every snap, and has been much more effective in his home stadium (99.8 rating, 7.75 YPA, 12 TD, 3 INT) than he was on the road (82.7 rating, 6.46 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT). Smith is 0-3 all-time against the Saints though, sporting a 65.0 passer rating (6.17 YPA, 3 TD, 5 INT).
San Francisco is an unbeaten 7-0-1 ATS at home this season and 9-1 ATS on a grass surface. Much of that has to do with a rushing offense chewing up 128 rushing YPG (8th in the NFL) led by Frank Gore’s 1,211 yards on 4.3 YPC. In the past two meetings against the Saints, Gore has 194 rushing yards (5.4 YPC), 87 receiving yards and 2 TD. Rookie Kendall Hunter has also stepped up in the past two games, rushing for 149 yards on 28 carries (5.3 YPC).
Another reason the 49ers have 13 wins this year, is due to their lack of turnovers. They have the fewest giveaways in the NFL (10), including a current ride of five straight games without an offensive turnover. And the defense has forced 12 turnovers during this turnover-less streak. The Saints also take care of the football very well, finishing tied for the fourth-fewest giveaways in the league (17).
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Division Playoff Preview: Texans at Ravens
By: Steve Bennett – StatFox
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HOUSTON TEXANS (11-6) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4)
AFC Playoffs – Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -7, Total: 38
The Texans won their first-ever playoff game last week, and on Sunday they’ll try to beat Baltimore for the first time ever.
The Ravens (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS all-time versus the Texans) used a big second half to pull away from Houston 29-14 the first time they met, Week 6 in Baltimore. And Houston still had starting QB Matt Schaub in the lineup. The Texans running game failed to get it going (93 yards, 3.7 YPC) against the Ravens’ elite run D that day, and Houston rookie QB T.J. Yates needs a successful running game. The third-stringer will have a tough time moving the ball in Baltimore, where opposing quarterbacks had a league-low 58.8 passer rating this season. The Ravens outgained the Texans 402-293, and won despite a minus-2 in the turnover department. Houston has the secondary to limit QB Joe Flacco, especially with WR Anquan Boldin, who burned Houston for 132 yards in their first meeting, breaking down physically. Stopping RB Ray Rice (101 rushing yards, 60 receiving yards in their first meeting) will be a whole other issue. The Ravens went undefeated SU at home this season, but were just 4-3-1 ATS. Houston was 10-4 SU (10-3-1 ATS) on grass surfaces. Which defense will propel its team to victory on Sunday? The StatFox Pro Football Pass was 3-1 ATS during Wild Card Weekend. Click here to get all the insight you need for this game and throughout the NFL playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl.
This matchup isn’t expected to see much offense, and the FoxSheets provide a four-star trend that sides with the UNDER despite the low Total.
John Harbaugh is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games as the coach of BALTIMORE. The average score was BALTIMORE 17.8, OPPONENT 10.0 – (Rating = 4*).
Houston rushed for 188 yards (5.4 YPC) in the playoff win over Cincinnati, with 153 of those coming from Arian Foster. He gained 6.4 YPC and scored twice. The Texans are averaging 161 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) over the past six weeks, while the Ravens have allowed 122 rushing YPG (4.3 YPC) in the past three games, considerably more than the 86 rushing YPG (3.3 YPC) they allowed in the first 13 games this year. Although Foster was held to 49 rushing yards (3.3 YPC) in Baltimore Week 6, he also gained 52 yards on six catches. Ben Tate was able to find more running room against Baltimore, carrying nine times for 41 yards (4.6 YPC). He finished the regular season with 942 yards (5.4 YPC) and gained 37 on nine carries in the win over Cincinnati.
Neither Yates nor WR Andre Johnson suited up for that Week 6 meeting, but both players performed at a high level against the Bengals. Yates completed 11-of-20 passes for 159 yards (8.0 YPA) and a 40-yard TD strike to Johnson to put the game out of reach in the third quarter. Johnson finished with five grabs for 90 yards, as he was targeted on nine of the 20 pass attempts. Johnson will be up against the Ravens 4th-best pass defense in the league (196 YPG), which has been incredibly stingy at home (51% completions, 171 YPG, 5.0 YPA). But the last time Johnson faced the Ravens (Dec. 2010), Johnso n exploded for nine catches, 140 yards and two touchdowns.
Flacco has already started seven playoff games in his first three NFL seasons, but none were at home. That’s a big reason for his subpar numbers in his postseason career: 98-of-184 (53%), 1,050 yards (150 YPG), 4 TD, 7 INT. Flacco had his second-highest YPA of the season (9.24 YPA) versus Houston though, when he connected on 20-of-33 passes for 305 yards. He did not throw a TD pass that game, but he has seven touchdown tosses over the past four weeks. With Boldin (knee) sitting out the season finale, Flacco threw 14 of his 19 passes to players, TE Dennis Pitta (6 rec, 62 yds, 1 TD) and WR Torrey Smith (5 rec, 33 yds). Smith had 84 receiving yards against the Texans this year, but if Boldin can’t go, Smith will likely be covered by Texans star CB Johnathan Joseph, who has played as well as any corner in the league in his first season in Houston. Joseph, who had seven tackles and an interception against Baltimore in Week 6, is the biggest reason Houston’s passing defense improved from last in the league in 2010 (268 YPG) to third-best this year (190 pass YPG).
Rice has struggled a bit in his playoff career, surpassing 70 rushing yards just once in five games. But he has been piling up yards since the start of December, totaling 809 yards (162 YPG) and five touchdowns in five games. But since giving up 113 rushing yards to Baltimore in Week 6, Houston has allowed 110 yards just once in the past 11 games (88 rushing YPG).
