NBA Preview – Thunder & Clippers Make Noise
NBA 2011-12 Preview: Central Division
By: Steve Bennett – StatFox
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NBA 2011-12 Preview: Northwest Division
By: Steve Bennett – StatFox
NORTHWEST DIVISION
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
2010-11 record: 55-27, 1st place in the Northwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 2-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 5-to-1
Just when it looked like the Thunder were primed for a run at the title, they had a postseason implosion that brings up a lot of questions.
There’s no doubting the talent in their young rotation. SF Kevin Durant (27.7 PPG) is a scoring champion and MVP candidate. PG Russell Westbrook (21.9 PPG, 8.2 APG) and sixth man James Harden (12.2 PPG) are two of the league’s best young backcourt players, PF Serge Ibaka (9.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.4 BPG) is an emerging star and they’ll have a full season with a slimmed down C Kendrick Perkins (7.9 RPG in 17 games with Oklahoma City). SG Thabo Sefolosha and PF Nick Collison are the kind of defensive-minded role players championship teams need, and Eric Maynor is one of the league’s best back-up point guards.
The Thunder were fourth in the NBA in offensive efficiency, in part because they make a living at the line (29.3 FT attempts per game, second in the NBA). They have a real shot at the No. 1 seed in the West.
But getting over the playoff hump will take some doing. Head coach Scott Brooks is a promising young coach, but he seemed in over his head during last year’s postseason. He couldn’t reign in the increasingly out-of-control Westbrook. But more worrisome, his end-of-game plays, where great coaches separate themselves, were disastrous. The Thunder struggled to get the ball into Durant’s hands, and rarely got off a good shot. They were outscored by a total of 35 points in the final three minutes of regulation in the West Conference Finals. That’s a big reason why they were rolled over by Dallas after cruising past Denver and Memphis, two teams they could overwhelm in terms of talent.
StatFox Take: It’s tough to trust this team to break through in the playoffs, but 5-to-1 looks pretty good for the Thunder. They have as good a chance as anyone to emerge from the West.
DENVER NUGGETS
2010-11 record: 50-32, 2nd place in the Northwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 25-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 60-to-1
George Karl and the Nuggets are doing an admirable job holding it together.
A franchise player forcing a trade has been a death knell for many franchises, but the Nuggets got an excellent haul in exchange for Carmelo Anthony last February. The Nuggets landed a potential No. 1 scorer in Danilo Gallinari (14.7 PPG in 14 games with Denver). Entering his fourth year, Gallinari has pledged to get to the free throw line (where he’s a career 84.7% shooter) more often, something that could easily make him a 20-PPG scorer. He shot 7.2 free throw attempts per game with Denver last year, by far a career high. C Timofey Mozgov moves well at 7-foot-1, 250 pounds and should be a serviceable role player with his ability to set screens. They flipped Raymond Felton for veteran PG Andre Miller (12.7 PPG, 7.0 APG with Portland), a must behind talented, but injury-prone, starter Ty Lawson (11.7 PPG, 4.7 APG).
Denver also avoided disaster by re-signing C Nene (14.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG), a strong two-way post player who could not have been replaced. They’re also likely to retain restricted free agent SG Arron Afflalo (12.6 PPG), and all-NBA-caliber defender with an efficient offensive game. That would make up for the likely absence of free agents Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith, all of whom are expected to play in China until at least March.
While Anthony is a supremely gifted offensive player, he is a liability on the defensive end. After trading him, the Nuggets transitioned from a subpar defensive team into a good one. And, no longer relying on isolation plays for their star, Denver still finished 2010-11 as the NBA’s most efficient offensive team, finishing second in the NBA in effective FG percentage (52.6%), leading the league in free throw rate (free throws per field goals attempt).
StatFox Take: Heading into the season, the Nuggets look like the best bet among the league’s darkhorse contenders. They’re in serious need of a go-to scorer for the postseason, and there’s no telling if anyone (Gallinari?) will step up and be the guy who makes big shots late in games. But this team has the best chance to be like the 2004 Detroit Pistons, a team that’s greater than the sum of their parts.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
2010-11 record: 48-34, 3rd place in the Northwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 25-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 60-to-1
The Blazers are quietly undergoing some major changes.
There’s upheaval in the front office; they’ve canned two general managers in the past year and have yet to find a permanent GM (an apparent issue on draft night when they spent the No. 21 pick on G Nolan Smith, a borderline second-round pick). There’s the reported retirement of Brandon Roy, their franchise player as recently as two years ago, and they’re talking about revamping their style of play. Portland played the slowest pace in the NBA last year, but with PG Ray Felton (15.5 PPG, 8.3 APG with New York and Denver) in, and PG Andre Miller and Roy out, head coach Nate McMillan has said the team will adopt an up-tempo style this year.
C/PF LaMarcus Aldridge (21.8 PPG, 8.8 RPG), arguably the NBA’s most underrated player, is capable of running the floor. F Gerald Wallace (15.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG) also fits the style well, though he’s rumored to be part of a four-team trade surrounding Dwight Howard to the Nets (no word on who Portland would land in return).
They have a couple of talented young wings in Wesley Matthews (15.9 PPG) and Nicolas Batum (12.4 PPG). Gone is plodding C Joel Przybilla, and C Greg Oden is facing the possibility of another lost season because of knee injuries. They can slide Aldridge to the five and Wallace (if he’s on the team) to the four in a small lineup, and use 37-year-old Marcus Camby (10.3 RPG) and 39-year-old Kurt Thomas (5.8 RPG with Chicago). Aldridge and Camby proved to be one of the best offensive rebounding tandems in the NBA, as Portland finished third in the league in offensive rebounding rate.
StatFox Take: McMillan is as good a coach as there is in the NBA, and he’ll maximize the talent he has. But this is a thin roster undergoing a lot of changes. They’ll be a favorite to grab a low playoff seed in the West, but another first-round playoff exit seems like the most likely scenario.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
2010-11 record: 17-65, 5th place in the Northwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 200-to-1
The Timberwolves are collecting as much talent as they can get their hands on, but there’s no telling how new head coach Rick Adelman is going to make this work.
Along with an intriguing young nucleus built around PF Kevin Love (20.2 PPG, 15.2 RPG), the Wolves added No. 2 overall draft pick Derrick Williams, an athletic swing forward, and made the long-awaited addition of PG Ricky Rubio. They’re also reportedly on the verge of adding NBA Finals hero J.J. Barea (9.5 PPG with Dallas).
Then there’s Minnesota’s batch of promising players who haven’t delivered yet: F Michael Beasley (19.2 PPG), second-year swingman Wes Johnson (9.0 PPG, 41.7% from three), three-point specialist Martell Webster (9.8 PPG), C Darko Milicic (8.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.0 BPG), PF Anthony Randolph (11.7 PPG in 23 games with Minnesota) and PF Nikola Pekovic (5.5 PPG).
There seems to be more than enough talent for Adelman, a respected coach who’s won without true superstars in Sacramento and Houston, to put together a solid eight-man rotation. But last year, the Timberwolves were a maddeningly inefficient offensive team, thanks to a low shooting percentage (44.1%), an inability to get to the line (25th in the NBA in free throw rate) and the league’s second-highest turnover rate. And despite being an excellent rebounding team, they were fourth-to-last in defensive efficiency.
StatFox Take: The rebuilding continues, but where Kurt Rambis was overwhelmed a year ago, Adelman seems to be a perfect fit for this team. They’ll take their lumps again this season, and the playoffs are not in reach. But a 10-game improvement is possible.
UTAH JAZZ
2010-11 record: 39-43, 4th place in the Northwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 40-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
The Jazz knew they had to blow it up before former franchise PG Deron Williams hit free agency, and that’s just what they did.
Williams was traded to New Jersey weeks after long-time head coach Jerry Sloan resigned, leaving the Jazz with a whole new look. With Tyrone Corbin taking over for Sloan, Utah went just 8-17 after the Williams trade.
They’ll have PG Devin Harris (15.8 PPG, 5.4 APG in 17 games with Utah) running the offense, and C.J. Miles (12.8 PPG), Gordon Hayward (5.4 PPG) and rookie Alec Burks are promising young wings. But the strength of this team is in the frontcourt.
C Al Jefferson (18.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG), PF Paul Millsap (17.3 PPG) and Mehmet Okur (4.9 PPG in just 13 games because of a series of nagging injuries) are all capable veterans, but they have major flaws as well. Jefferson is an atrocious defender, a big reason Utah ranked 24th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and one of the NBA’s worst passing big men, a huge flaw against double-teams. In five seasons as an NBA starter, last year was the first time he’d been on a team that won more than 24 games. Millsap is also weak defensively. He, Jefferson and Miles were largely responsible for the Jazz allowing the highest free throw rate in the NBA, a sign of sloppy team defense.
Okur says he’s 100%, but at age 32 his 6-foot-11, 265-pound frame seems to be breaking down.
The future in the frontcourt for Utah is second-year PF Derrick Favors (8.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG in 22 games with Utah), the key acquisition in the Williams trade, and rookie C Enes Kanter. Favors is still a work in progress, but he has a rare combination of length, athleticism and power. Kanter is a skilled big man with a blue collar approach who can play the high post or bang down low. However, he didn’t play organized basketball last year after the NCAA declared him ineligible at the University of Kentucky.
StatFox Take: This is a tough task for a young head coach like Corbin, as the Jazz just aren’t a well-built team right now. The sooner they figure out they can’t win with Jefferson and Millsap the better, as Favors and Kanter are a solid foundation for the future. But it will be a long year for a franchise that isn’t used to taking its lumps.
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NBA 2011-12 Preview: Pacific Division
By: Steve Bennett – StatFox
PACIFIC DIVISION
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
2010-11 record: 57-25, 1st place in the Pacific Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 9-to-5
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 4-to-1
It’s been a rough eight months for the Lakers, who were swept out of the playoffs by Dallas, saw their Hall of Fame coach retire and struck a deal for Chris Paul only to have the league reject it. And yet they’re still the favorites to win the West, and rightfully so.
They’re another team that will benefit from a shortened season, as SG Kobe Bryant (25.3 PPG) will be fresh for the playoffs—there’s still nobody better in the postseason—and fewer games mean fewer chances for star C Andrew Bynum (11.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG) to suffer another injury.
But there are more question marks surrounding this team than ever before. Mike Brown takes over for Phil Jackson on the bench, but Brown is best known for repeatedly falling short in the playoffs when he coached LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
They traded long-time role player Lamar Odom (14.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG), insurance for Bynum, and so far their only offseason addition is PF Josh McRoberts (7.4 PPG with Indiana), a borderline rotation player. They are dangling PF Pau Gasol (18.8 PPG, 10.2 RPG) in trade talks. Gasol’s awful playoff performance was the biggest reason for their sweep at the hands of the Mavericks. With the trade exception they got in the Odom deal, they are in position to make a major move, potentially for Magic C Dwight Howard. SF Metta World Peace (8.5 PPG), formerly known as Ron Artest, seems to be just as flaky as ever.
StatFox Take: Sure, the Lakers will probably figure out how to get the right pieces around Kobe and be fine once the playoffs roll around. But at this point, with all the changes and questions surrounding this team, they seem like longer than 4-to-1 odds to win a title.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
2010-11 record: 32-50, 4th place in the Pacific Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 8-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 15-to-1
Things are getting very interesting in Los Angeles, as the Clippers have closed the gap on the Lakers by acquiring Chris Paul.
The combination of Paul (15.9 PPG, 9.8 APG with New Orleans) and PF Blake Griffin (22.5 PPG, 12.1 RPG) in the pick-and-roll game should be enough to make L.A., which finished just 23rd in offensive efficiency a year ago, one of the NBA’s top-10 offensive teams. The Clippers were the NBA’s most turnover-prone team last season with Baron Davis and later Mo Williams running the point.
The Clippers also matched an offer sheet to C DeAndre Jordan (7.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG), whose defense will be key in keeping the pressure off Griffin on that side of the court. They also added two quality veterans to come on as role players. SF Caron Butler (15.0 PPG with Dallas) is healthy again after a knee injury cost him most of last season, and PG Chauncey Billups (16.8 PPG, 5.4 APG with Denver and New York) can back-up or play alongside Paul and brings a reputation for hitting big shots.
The Clippers’ biggest issue at this point is frontcourt depth, as long-time NBA bench warmer Brian Cook and rookie second-round pick Trey Thompkins are the only bigs on the roster after Jordan and Griffin.
StatFox Take: Not only have the Clippers totally rebuilt themselves, but they’ve managed to do it with quality, playoff-tested veterans. It’s likely too much to ask for a deep playoff run considering they’ll have an abbreviated training camp and shortened regular season to get everyone to gel, but the Clippers will make the playoffs and be the proverbial “team no one wants to play,” capable of advancing to the second round.
PHOENIX SUNS
2010-11 record: 40-42, 2nd place in the Pacific Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 40-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
Phoenix’s championship window seems to have slammed shut, and the Suns will be in a battle just to get back into the playoffs.
The story has remained the same for the Suns even after transitioning from Mike D’Antoni to Alvin Gentry: They’re excellent on offense, they stink on defense. They’ll seemingly always have a chance as long as PG Steve Nash (14.7 PPG, 11.4 APG) is running the show. And after wearing down late last season (40.6% FG after the All-Star break), the shortened regular season should allow Nash to stay fresher for longer. Nash will likely have to take on more minutes early on with back-up PG Aaron Brooks still under contract in China until March.
It’s his supporting cast that looks a little weak. Phoenix will continue to lean on 39-year-old Grant Hill (13.2 PPG) on both ends of the floor, and SF Jared Dudley (12.7 PPG, 41.5% from three) continues to emerge as a strong option on the wing. PF Channing Frye (12.7 PPG, 39.0% from three) gives them another catch-and-shoot threat on the perimeter, and C Marcin Gortat (13.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG) has finally given them a strong low-post complement to Frye.
SG Mickael Pietrus, one of the team’s better perimeter defenders, has been unable to earn consistent playing time. Ditto for C Robin Lopez, who seems to be regressing under Gentry. SF Josh Childress struggled in his first season back from Greece, and PF Hakim Warrick never established pick-and-roll chemistry with Nash.
StatFox Take: The Suns will likely be in the running for the bottom spots in the Western Conference playoff picture, and their three-point shooting could give someone a scare. But in the end, they’re not equipped to make any sort of postseason run.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
2010-11 record: 36-46, 3rd place in the Pacific Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 40-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
Another year, another head coach and another attempt to rebuild the frontcourt in Golden State.
Keith Smart was dismissed after one season despite a 10-win improvement over 2009-10, seemingly due to the Warriors’ change in ownership. He’ll be replaced by former NBA point guard and television analyst Mark Jackson, who has no coaching experience.
Smart made minor strides with a Warriors team that played little defense under long-time head coach Don Nelson. Golden State improved from 29th in defensive efficiency to 26th last year. While its up-tempo attack leads to a lot of points, the Warriors have consistently been middle-of-the-pack in offensive efficiency. Their explosive perimeter trio of Monta Ellis (24.1 PPG, 5.6 APG), Stephen Curry (18.6 PPG, 5.8 APG, 44.2% from three) and Dorell Wright (16.4 PPG, 37.6% from three) is now joined by sharpshooting rookie Klay Thompson. They are capable of making a lot of shots, the ball often just stays on the perimeter. Because of that, the Warriors had the lowest free throw rate in the NBA last year, and getting to the line is one of the keys to winning games in this league.
But where the Warriors have really struggled is on the boards. They’ve ranked last in the NBA in rebounding rate each of the past two seasons. A year ago they severely overpaid to bring in PF David Lee (16.5 PPG, 9.8 RPG) and this season, after failing to sign Clippers C DeAndre Jordan, they settled for C Kwame Brown (6.8 RPG with Charlotte). C Andris Biedrins (7.2 RPG) has gone from rising star to inconsistent flake over the past two seasons. The Warriors are also hoping for more from second-year PF Ekpe Udoh, the No. 6 pick of the 2010 draft who was largely invisible as a rookie because of a broken wrist.
StatFox Take: Hiring Jackson, a coach with no experience, seems to be the worst thing the Warriors could have done. While he may have worked with a veteran team that needed a caretaker, Golden State is a rebuilding franchise with young talent that hasn’t figured out how to win consistently. After showing some promise last year, the Warriors seem more than likely to slide back in 2011-12.
SACRAMENTO KINGS
2010-11 record: 24-58, 5th place in the Pacific Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
After surviving a relocation threat, the Kings are looking at another rebuilding year in the state capital.
A lack of outside shooting and a lot of turnovers are what plague this team. And dealing two of their best shooters—Beno Udrih and Omri Casspi—likely won’t help matters. They’ll rely on combo guards Tyreke Evans (17.8 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Marcus Thornton (21.3 PPG in 27 games with the Kings) to create on the outside, but they’re both streaky shooters and poor decision makers. The same could be said for the team’s most promising talent, C DeMarcus Cousins (14.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG). His propensity for taking bad shots and picking up offensive fouls is becoming the stuff of legend.
The Kings continued to stockpile shoot-first players in the offseason, trading for John Salmons (14.0 PPG for Milwaukee) and drafting Jimmer Fredette, sure-to-be-fan-favorite. Fredette will likely serve as a sixth man, and it’s yet to be seen how he’ll handle the transition to the NBA after being a one-man show at BYU for two seasons. He could provide some much-needed three-point shooting.
But for all their potential flaws on the offensive end, one thing the Kings do really well is attack the boards. They led the NBA in offensive rebounding rate, and adding Chuck Hayes (8.1 RPG for Houston) and J.J. Hickson (13.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG for Cleveland) will only fortify that.
StatFox Take: Head coach Paul Westphal will have his hands full sorting this out with only one basketball on the court at a time. In a best-case scenario, they could be a dangerous team come March.
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