NBA Previews – Atlantic Division; Southwest Division
BA 2011-12 Preview: Atlantic Division
By: Steve Bennett – StatFox
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ATLANTIC DIVISION
BOSTON CELTICS
2010-11 record: 56-26, 1st place in the Atlantic Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 5-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 12-to-1
If there’s one team that stands to benefit most from the lockout-shortened season, it’s the aging Celtics.
Last spring, Boston was run out of the gym by a younger Miami Heat team in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Three of their stars—Paul Pierce (18.9 PPG), Kevin Garnett (14.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and Ray Allen (16.5 PPG, 44.4% three-point shooting)—are in their mid-30’s, and Garnett’s health is of particular concern because of his recent history of knee problems and value on the defensive end of the court. Due largely to Garnett’s ability to guard the pick-and-roll, the Celtics have remained one of the NBA’s elite defensive teams.
Point guard Rajon Rondo (11.2 APG) has become an equal—if not a superior—of the Big Three. He was once again the subject of trade rumors during the shortened offseason. But with Chris Paul reportedly unwilling to sign an extension with Boston, Rondo is most likely staying put.
Boston’s Achilles heel will be interior defense and rebounding. GM Danny Ainge rolled the dice when he traded C Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City for PF Jeff Green (9.8 PPG in 26 games with Boston), presumably the heir apparent to Garnett. Perkins was only a part-time player, but he was also the team’s only real interior enforcer. It led to two red flags (and potentially fatal flaws) with this team: They consistently get outrebounded (they were last in the NBA in offensive rebounding rate) and they don’t get to the line as often as their opponents.
The shot-making of Allen and Pierce can make up for it to an extent, but they have to get hot in the playoffs for this team to make a run at superior teams in Chicago and Miami.
StatFox Take: The Celtics are a sentimental favorite who probably get too much credit from bettors at this point. But a year ago, the Mavs won a title while relying on shot-making from their stars. And Ainge could always make an in-season trade to swing the pendulum back towards Boston in the East. But entering the year, they’re clearly a step behind the Bulls and Heat.
NEW YORK KNICKS
2010-11 record: 42-40, 2nd place in the Atlantic Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 14-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 25-to-1
The Knicks are certainly not short on star power. After signing PF Amar’e Stoudemire (25.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG) two summers ago, they made a blockbuster deal to get SF Carmelo Anthony (26.3 PPG in 27 games with New York) at least year’s trade deadline. They’re also reportedly set to add defensive-minded C Tyson Chandler (10.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG for Dallas).
Not surprisingly, New York struggled to get Anthony acclimated late last season. He was an isolation player in a Mike D’Antoni system that relies heavily on ball movement. But having a training camp (albeit a short one) with its two stars should lead to a nice improvement this season.
Of course, the issue for the Knicks isn’t scoring, it’s defense. D’Antoni can’t bench Stoudemire or Anthony, but they’re liabilities on defense. New York was the least efficient defensive team among last year’s playoff teams, and while the potential addition of Chandler would help, they still have a long way to go. Aside from D’Antoni’s Phoenix teams, there have been few bad defensive teams compete for championships in the modern NBA.
Stoudemire also struggled with a back injury that kept him out for a chunk of last year’s playoffs, still a concern considering his long injury history.
The Knicks might have an issue at point guard as well. PG Chauncey Billups (17.5 PPG in 21 games with New York) will reportedly be cut via the amnesty rule. The only other point guards on the roster are Toney Douglas and rookie Iman Shumpert, both undersized combo guards and fringe rotation players.
StatFox Take: When it boils down to it, the Knicks have a heck of a fantasy basketball team but, even with Chandler, one that doesn’t seem equipped to make a deep playoff run. They do have the ability to outscore just about anyone though, and that in itself makes them a threat. But just to win the East, they’re going to have to catch fire against at least two of the conference’s top three teams—Miami, Chicago, Boston—all of whom play elite defense. They’re at least a year away from being in the NBA Finals discussion.
NEW JERSEY NETS
2010-11 record: 24-58, 4th place in the Atlantic Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 23-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 50-to-1
With a move to Brooklyn on the horizon for next season, the Nets are on schedule for one more rebuilding year before crossing the Hudson.
Their main goal is to make PG Deron Williams (15.0 PPG, 12.8 APG in 12 games with New Jersey) happy. They essentially mortgaged the future to get Williams from Utah at least year’s trade deadline, but under the new CBA rules the Nets can’t offer Williams a contract extension big enough to entice him. Williams has hinted he’s willing to sign long-term with the team after the season as long as they make some big improvements.
And that’s exactly what owner Mikhail Prokhorov is looking to do. New Jersey has their sights set on Orlando franchise C Dwight Howard to pair with Williams (C Brook Lopez and a plethora of first-rounders for Howard and the albatross that is Hedo Turkoglu’s contract has been the hottest—and most-logical—rumor making the rounds).
Without Howard, this is an also-ran team that doesn’t defend or shoot well enough to be more than an 8-seed candidate in the East. Lopez (20.4 PPG) and three-point specialist Anthony Morrow (13.2 PPG, 42.3% from three) provide Williams with a serviceable—albeit thin—supporting cast.
StatFox Take: If you’re looking to put five bucks down on a longshot to win the title, look no further than the Nets. With Howard, they could conceivably be the conference’s fourth-best team. With his shot-blocking and rebounding, Howard has almost singlehandedly made the Magic one of the NBA’s top defensive teams despite being surrounded by a lot of weak defenders. Sure, there are only three legitimate contenders for the Eastern Conference crown. But in a hypothetical world with Howard leading the defense and Williams running the offense, the Nets would be, say, a Morrow hot streak away from making a deep playoff run.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
2010-11 record: 41-41, 3rd place in the Atlantic Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
Give head coach Doug Collins credit. In his first year heading up the Sixers, he got to the playoffs with smoke and mirrors, because this team doesn’t have 40-win talent.
Philadelphia doesn’t do anything particularly well except for take care of the ball. They had the lowest turnover rate in the NBA last year. Combine that with solid defense, and it’s a formula for a playoff berth in the East.
PG Jrue Holiday (14.0 PPG, 6.5 APG) did a solid job initiating the offense a year ago, and at 21 years old, he has room to develop into more of a playmaker. SG Andre Iguodala (14.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 6.3 APG) pulled back a little bit, but he became a more effective player in Collins system. Collins also found a way to milk some production out of preposterously overpaid PF Elton Brand (15.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG).
For this team to even think about taking the next step, they must retain promising stretch PF Thaddeus Young (12.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG), a restricted free agent, and get a huge improvement out of second-year SG Evan Turner (7.2 PPG). The No. 2 overall pick of the 2010 draft, Turner is a poor fit in this system as a wing who can’t shoot (42.5% FG) and needs a lot of touches to be effective. He was not an NBA-caliber rotation player as a rookie.
StatFox Take: Another playoff berth is certainly within reach. But this team isn’t built to beat the NBA’s elite. The best-case scenario would be the Magic rebuild and the erratic Hawks slip up, allowing the 76ers to sneak into the 4-5 series where they knock off the Knicks. But it’s simply unfathomable to think they’ll beat the Heat, Bulls or Celtics in a seven-game series.
TORONTO RAPTORS
2010-11 record: 22-60, 5th place in the Atlantic Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 100-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 200-to-1
Two seasons later, the Raptors are still reeling from Chris Bosh’s departure.
They do have some offensive firepower. C Andrea Bargnani (21.4 PPG) is a uniquely skilled big man, even if he doesn’t do a whole lot around the basket on either end of the floor. SG DeMar DeRozan (17.2 PPG) is making the transition from raw athlete to complete scorer. They might have the steal of the draft in Lithuanian power forward Jonas Valanciunas, a skilled power forward with a blue collar approach under the basket. He’ll more likely stay overseas for another year, but if they bring him over he could have an impact in the second half of the season as an excellent complement to Bargnani on the offensive end. Current power forwards Amir Johnson (9.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and Ed Davis (7.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG) are primarily defenders and rebounders.
Point guard play continues to be an issue for the Raptors. Jose Calderon (9.8 PPG, 8.9 APG) can effectively run the offense, but he’s one of the NBA’s worst defensive guards. Jerryd Bayless (10.0 PPG, 4.0 APG in 60 games with Toronto) had his moments, but he’s a streaky, combo guard-type.
The Raptors don’t defend or rebound well, and Bargnani (34.5% from three) and Leandro Barbosa (33.8% 3-pt FG) are their only real long-range threats. Toronto took the second-fewest threes in the NBA a year ago (13.3 per game). When you don’t have the three-pointer as an equalizer, it’s tough to beat teams that are better than you. And most nights, the Raptors will be playing teams that are better than they are.
StatFox Take: The rebuilding goes on. Even in the East, the Raptors don’t have a playoff-caliber team. Realistically about 35 wins is their ceiling, and that’s only if guys like DeRozan and Davis take huge steps forward and they get unexpectedly strong play out of their point guards. That’s too much to fall into place.
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SOUTHWEST DIVISION
DALLAS MAVERICKS
2010-11 record: 57-25, 2nd place in the Southwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 3-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 8-to-1
The defending champs spent the offseason tweaking Dirk Nowitzki’s supporting cast.
Gone are Tyson Chandler (to New York), J.J. Barea (Minnesota) and likely DeShawn Stevenson. Chandler will be the toughest piece to replace, as he had become the heart of the Dallas defense. They’ll rely on C Brendan Haywood (5.2 RPG), who’s 32 and had major hip problems late last season, and C Ian Mahinmi, an injury-prone project who never developed.
To replace Barea, they brought in G Delonte West (5.6 PPG with Boston), who was limited to 24 games because of wrist and ankle injuries last season and has a history of instability. He’ll be a key contributor behind 38-year-old PG Jason Kidd (8.2 APG). They also boosted their bench by adding veterans PF Lamar Odom (14.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG with the Lakers) and SG Vince Carter (14.0 PPG with Orlando and Phoenix).
Nowitzki (23.0 PPG) and Jason Terry (15.8 PPG) are still the centerpiece of an offense that relies heavily on jump shooting. When they’re shooting it well, they can go on a run like they did last spring.
StatFox Take: There wasn’t a lot of margin for error with the Mavs, who played as well as they could have during last spring’s title run. And making up for the losses of Chandler and Barea may be too much to overcome. A repeat seems unlikely.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
2010-11 record: 61-21, 1st place in the Southwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 11-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 25-to-1
The Spurs had a dream regular season thanks in large part to some phenomenal three-point shooting. San Antonio made an NBA-best 39.7% of their threes, highlighted by some unlikely candidates: SF Richard Jefferson (44.0%), C Matt Bonner (45.7%) and SG Gary Neal (41.9%).
But the reliance on the outside shot is a big reason they got bounced in the first round of the playoffs, as the Spurs shot just 29.4% from three in their six-game series with Memphis.
They still have a strong nucleus with the trio of SG Manu Ginobili (17.4 PPG), PG Tony Parker (17.5 PPG, 6.6 APG) and PF Tim Duncan (13.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG), and Ginobili and Duncan in particular should benefit from the abbreviated regular season (the injury-prone Ginobili was hampered by a shoulder injury in the playoffs).
But the supporting cast will be the difference between a first-round exit and a deep playoff run. The Spurs traded PG George Hill (11.6 PPG, 37.7% from three) for the draft rights to SF Kawhi Leonard, a long defensive specialist who will push Jefferson, who collapsed in the playoffs. Tiago Splitter, a highly touted Euro League star who struggled in his first NBA season, and DeJuan Blair (8.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG) will likely have to take on a bigger role with Antonio McDyess seemingly heading into retirement. They signed veteran PG T.J. Ford (11.4 PPG, 5.9 APG in career) to help replace Hill. And there’s been a buzz about second-year SG James Anderson.
StatFox Take: These seem like some bettor-friendly odds. The Spurs postseason collapse is freshest on everyone’s minds, but they have three All-Stars with championship experience, that will benefit from the shortened season, and are always well-coached. Their supporting cast could be very good, and if it is, the Spurs can beat anyone in a seven-game series.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
2010-11 record: 46-36, 4th place in the Southwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 14-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 30-to-1
The Grizzlies will continue to rely on the brute force that got them within a game of the Western Conference finals.
PF Zach Randolph (20.1 PPG, 12.2 RPG) and C Marc Gasol (11.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG) make up arguably the best low-post tandem in the NBA. The offense runs through Randolph and the Grizzlies generate almost all their offense inside the arc and at the free throw line.
What will be most interesting is how the Grizzlies adjust to the return of Rudy Gay (19.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG). Despite an incredible combination of length and athleticism, Gay simply looks to isolate too often on offense and is too often disinterested on defense. The team just seemed to mesh better after he went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. If Gay isn’t willing to fade back into a complementary role to Memphis’s bigs, it could be a problem.
As for the rest of the team, PG Mike Conley (13.7 PPG, 6.5 APG) has become a capable caretaker, and Memphis has the luxury of going offense/defense at shooting guard with O.J. Mayo (11.3 PPG) and Tony Allen (1.79 steals PG, 5th in NBA). Athletic PF Darrell Arthur (9.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG) quietly emerged as one of the best reserve big men in the NBA. The Grizzlies will have to replace the veteran leadership of Shane Battier, and second-year SF Xavier Henry, a potential answer to their lack of three-pointers, is out until mid-January with torn ligaments in his ankle. Outside shooting is a glaring weakness on this team. Memphis made the fewest three-pointers in the NBA last year and shot just 33.4% from behind the arc.
StatFox Take: Randolph has to keep his head screwed on straight, and head coach Lionel Hollins will have to figure out what Gay’s role will be on a team that was better without him. The Grizzlies are a dangerous postseason team, but they could be facing an uphill climb to get back into the playoff tournament.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
2010-11 record: 43-39, 5th place in the Southwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 40-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
The Rockets are still trying to find a way to get over the hump in the post-Yao era.
They were involved in the rejected Chris Paul trade, which would have had them acquiring Lakers PF Pau Gasol and losing SG Kevin Martin and PF Luis Scola. They were reportedly going to go all-in for Nene to pair with Gasol, but the Brazilian big man re-signed with Denver. So it’s back to the drawing board now.
Kevin McHale replaces Rick Adelman on the bench, but the offense will run through Martin (23.5 PPG), who makes a living getting to the line (8.4 free throw attempts per game) and converting (88.8%). Scola (18.3 PPG) emerged as a quality No. 2 scoring option, and PG Kyle Lowry (13.5 PPG, 6.7 APG) was very good after taking the starting job from Aaron Brooks. Houston ranked sixth in the NBA in offensive efficiency due largely to having the league’s second-lowest turnover rate. SF Chase Budinger (9.8 PPG) is emerging as a legitimate spot-up threat.
The Rockets must replace departed PF/C Chuck Hayes, a key rebounder and low post enforcer (they’ve been linked to free agent Sam Dalembert). Houston’s biggest strength could end up being its bench. PG Goran Dragic (7.7 PPG in 22 games with Houston) would start for a lot of teams, and SG Courtney Lee (8.3 PPG) has been brilliant in spurts. PF Patrick Patterson (6.3 PPG) also flashed some potential as a rookie.
StatFox Take: It was an incredibly disappointing offseason for the Rockets, who in the end made no real improvements to their roster. They are good enough to be in the playoff hunt but seem more than likely to end up on the outside looking in.
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
2010-11 record: 46-36, 3rd place in the Southwest Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Western Conference: 40-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
The long, bizarre Chris Paul saga had what was likely the happiest ending possible for the Hornets. They lost their franchise player, but ended up landing a very good 22-year-old No. 1 scorer in Eric Gordon, a quality big in C Chris Kaman, an interesting project in SF Al-Farouq Aminu and the Timberwolves unprotected first-round pick, which should be an awfully good one.
Of course, the trade is bad news for 2011-12. PG Jarrett Jack (8.5 PPG in 46 games with New Orleans) steps into Paul’s point guard spot, obviously an enormous downgrade. Gordon (22.3 PPG for the Clippers) will provide some firepower, they retained energetic PF Carl Landry (11.8 PPG in 23 games), and Kaman (12.4 PPG with the Clippers) and Emeka Okafor (10.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG) are capable big bodies. With Gordon in, they can now use defensive liability, but sharp-shooting, Marco Belinelli (10.5 PPG, 41.4% from three) on more of a part-time basis. And if Trevor Ariza (11.0 PPG) ever gets his shot straightened out (39.8% from the field), the Hornets could surprise some people.
Perhaps most importantly, they have one of the NBA’s brightest young coaches in Monty Williams and play the kind of grind-it-out pace to keep games close (only Portland, where Williams was an assistant, played a slower tempo than the Hornets last year, and that was with Paul).
StatFox Take: It’s obviously a rebuilding year for the Hornets, who two seasons ago went 14-23 with their franchise player sidelined. Barring a miracle, the playoffs are simply not in reach. But with their style of play, they’re bound to pull off a shocker or two this season.
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