Books Make LSU -2; NBA Preview – Central Division
In no time, it’s LSU -2 at the Wynn for BCS bowl odds
by Micah Roberts
Article courtesy of www.gamingtoday.com – a great source for up to the minute gaming news from around the globe.
John Avello at the Wynn Las Vegas wasted little time opening up his BCS bowl odds Sunday.
As soon as the announcement of the matchups were made official, the Wynn sportsbook had the lines up within five minutes. It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Avello and the Wynn were the first because they’ve been the first in the world all season long putting up college football lines.
They already had LSU up as a 2-point favorite over Alabama in the BCS Championship game for over a week so there wasn’t a mystery with the line. A couple of the other games did raise some eye-brows, not only with the odds but the actual matchup.
Two teams that likely shouldn’t have been BCS-bowl bound, Virginia Tech and Michigan, are playing each other in the Sugar Bowl with the reason being their alumni travel well.
Does Virginia Tech really deserve a shot at playing on this stage after getting pounded twice this season by a questionable Clemson squad?
The ACC is just a notch – a small one – above the Big East. Meanwhile we have Kansas State (10-2) coming from the strongest strength of schedule conference and ranked No. 8, three positions higher than the Hokies and seven higher than Clemson, getting left out because they’re not a strong traveling school.
You can throw Michigan into that group as well, but they always travel well. Who knew that traveling well was one of the BCS criteria? So this is what it’s become about in the BS – or rather BCS – bowl system. Teams that travel well and sell hotel rooms will get the nod from a major conference and become eligible for an invite if they’re in the top-14 of the BCS standings.
The Wynn opened Virginia Tech as 3-point favorites over Michigan, but immediately bet against causing the line to drop down to -1½. The Las Vegas Hilton opened its numbers shortly after with Tech -1 and have since moved to pick’em.
Trying to see who the bettors thought was worse, the ACC or Big East, didn’t take long in Orange Bowl matchup between West Virginia and Clemson. The Tigers opened as 2½-point favorites and were immediately bet up to -3. The Hilton opened their number at -3½.
The Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl give us a couple of classic matchups that are sure to leave us wanting more, like an extended playoff system to see how the winners would do against the winner of the SEC bowl.
The Wynn opened Oregon -4½ against Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and it has been bet up to -5. The Hilton opened Oregon -4 and had been bet up to -5½ by Monday morning. It’s almost like we have seen this game before with the Big-10 type of team in Stanford not being able to keep up with the speed of Oregon earlier this season.
Oklahoma State did all they had to do in crushing Oklahoma last week in hopes that voters would want to see the best team from the Big-12 play the best team from the SEC, but it wasn’t enough as the terrible loss at Iowa State still lingered in the back of every voters minds.
The Cowboys opened as 3½-point favorites in the Fiesta Bowl against Stanford in what should be a very entertaining game. The two teams have contrasting styles with the physical Stanford squad led by Heisman candidate Andrew Luck and his precision execution to Oklahoma State’s fast paced offense led by 28-year-old quarterback Brandon Weeden.
So far, this has been the only game with no movement as bettors are showing great respect for each team.
Meanwhile, one-loss No. 7 Boise State is left out of the mix joining Kansas State as a casualty of “BS” politics. Houston was also punished harshly with its loss to Southern Miss falling from No. 6 all the way to No. 19 as if the voters said, “go away already, you’re bothering me.”
Southern Miss didn’t get much credit for knocking off the undefeat “What the low numbers do is keep the underdog money-line respectable to a point where we don’t lose too much if the dog wins,” said Osborne. “Everyone thinks that when the underdogs win we do well. But that’s not always the case, especially in the bigger bowl games with huge action. The trend is usually to lay the points or take the odds with the dog at plus-money.”
Osborne opened LSU -2 over Alabama in the Championship with a total of 40. He shortened the money-line about .10 cents to LSU -130 and +110 on Alabama just to be ahead of the game over the counter that always replays itself.
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NBA 2011-12 Preview: Central Division
By: Steve Bennett – StatFox
If you want stats there is no better place to go than www.statfox.com
CENTRAL DIVISION
CHICAGO BULLS
2010-11 record: 62-20, 1st place in the Central Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 5-to-2
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 6-to-1
In Derrick Rose, they have the reigning MVP. And under head coach Tom Thibodeau, they play the best team defense in the NBA. They were the best rebounding team in the NBA last year. There’s no reason Chicago can’t win an NBA title.
And yet, they’re clearly behind the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference pecking order. The problem is that, when it comes down to it, Rose (25.0 PPG, 7.7 APG) is Chicago’s only go-to guy in the clutch. And he’s just not enough of a shot maker.
Last year, Rose got off to a torrid start, showing off a new-found ability to knock down jumpers. By New Year’s, he was making 45.1% of his field goals and 39.1% from three. After that, he shot 44.2% from the field and 30.4% from three. In the postseason, he hit just 39.6% of his shots and 24.8% of his threes. And in the conference finals loss to Miami, he shot 35.0% from the field and 23.3% from three over five games.
It may be too much to ask Rose, a point guard who thrives at getting to the basket, to start knocking down the jumpers you need to hit in the playoffs, when those drives in the line become a lot more clogged.
Rose does have a strong enough supporting cast. SF Luol Deng (17.4 PPG) has become a solid complimentary scorer as well as an excellent lockdown defender, in the mold of a young Tayshaun Prince. C Joakim Noah (11.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG) is as good a low-post defender as there is in the NBA.
PF Carlos Boozer (17.5 PPG, 9.6 RPG) became an Achilles heel in last year’s postseason; a liability on the defensive end of the floor who struggled offensively in the playoffs (12.6 PPG on 43.3% shooting). The team offered nagging injuries as an excuse. PF Taj Gibson (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG), a defensive stud, often played over Boozer in the postseason, but his offensive game is limited. Boozer’s mid-range shooting could be the difference between this team making a run to the Finals and falling short again.
StatFox Take: The Bulls are built for regular season dominance, and they should be neck-and-neck with Miami for the top seed in the East. The postseason is a different story though. They need Boozer to emerge as a legitimate No. 2 scoring option to have a shot at separating themselves from Boston and rising to the same level as Miami. And, if his career to this point is any indication, don’t count on Boozer stepping up.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
2010-11 record: 35-47, 3rd place in the Central Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
One thing you have to say about a Scott Skiles-coached team: They always compete on the defensive end of the court.
Despite a lack of any truly elite defenders, Milwaukee was fourth in the NBA in team defensive efficiency last year. That’s right about where the good news ends though.
Milwaukee was the least efficient offensive team in the NBA. They were dead last in field goal percentage (43.0%) and 24th in three-point shooting (34.2%). PG Brandon Jennings (16.2 PPG) is a high-volume shooter who made just 39.0% of his shots last year. The Bucks are hoping that newly-acquired SG Stephen Jackson (18.5 PPG with Charlotte) can be a better fit in the flow of the offense than departed chucker John Salmons. Milwaukee also signed free agent Mike Dunleavy (11.2 PPG, 40.2% from three) to help with spacing. He’ll take some minutes from SG Carlos Delfino (11.5 PPG) as a quality all-around wing who probably took too many shots last year.
C Andrew Bogut (12.8 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 2.6 BPG) is a solid complementary offensive player who anchors their defense inside the arc. But as a team, the Bucks also don’t rebound it particularly well, and overpaying PF Drew Gooden (11.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG) two offseasons ago wasn’t the answer. Skiles often prefers to go with swing forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (6.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG), a restricted free agent who is likely to be retained. He’s an excellent defensive player with limited appeal otherwise.
StatFox Take: The Bucks defend so well that all they really need is to be a mediocre offensive team to make a run at the 4-seed in the East. The acquisition of Jackson should help, as should a presumed improvement from Jennings. It’s not enough to put them anywhere near the big three in the East, but they should be a playoff team capable of winning a 4-5 series.
INDIANA PACERS
2010-11 record: 37-45, 2nd place in the Central Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
Head coach Frank Vogel will get his first full season with the Pacers after helping lead them to the playoffs a year ago. After starting the year 17-27, the Pacers went 20-18 under Vogel and gave the top-seeded Bulls some nervous moments in their five-game series.
Indiana has a unique blend of talent. Swing forward Danny Granger (20.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG) is the focal point of the offense, but he’s a streaky perimeter shooter (42.5% from the field) who takes a lot of questionable shots. PG Darren Collison (13.2 PPG, 5.1 APG) is effective in Indy’s up-tempo attack, and C Roy Hibbert (12.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG) is uniquely skilled at 7-foot-2, 278 pounds. However, Hibbert is a bit of a square peg in Vogel’s up-tempo system.
Combo guard George Hill (11.6 PPG, 37.7% 3-pt FG with San Antonio) should fill the three-point shooting void created by the departure of Mike Dunleavy. He was a valuable role player in three years with the Spurs and has a chance to take on a featured role for the Pacers.
Indiana could take a big step forward if they get improved play from PF Tyler Hansbrough (11.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and second-year swingman Paul George (7.8 PPG). Hansbrough had some moments in the 2011 postseason, scoring 22 in Indiana’s Game 1 near-upset of the top-seeded Bulls. His mid-range jumper was falling in that game, and if it’s more consistent this year, he’ll be a double-double threat (after shooting 10-for-19 from the field in Game 1, Hansbrough shot just 10-for-41 over the rest of the series). At 6-foot-8, George is a lockdown defender in the making. He moved into the starting lineup late last year and was a big reason for Indy’s late-season turnaround.
StatFox Take: There’s certainly reason for optimism. The Pacers are going to be right there battling for the 4 and 5 seeds in the East. Whether they get it will depend on improved shot selection and the emergence of guys like George, Hansbrough and Hill. But as much upside as this Indiana roster has, Milwaukee’s superior defense gives them the edge for the second spot in the Central.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
2010-11 record: 19-63, 5th place in the Central Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
Obviously, the franchise was caught completely off-guard by the departure of LeBron James, as they had no contingency plan in place. This is really going to be the first year of the post-LeBron era.
And the Cavs are off to a good start as far as their long-term success is concerned. PG Kyrie Irving, the No. 1 overall pick of June’s draft, should step in as a capable floor general immediately, and he has All-Star upside down the road, especially under the guidance of head coach Byron Scott.
They got a little more versatile by swapping PF J.J. Hickson for SF Omri Casspi (8.6 PPG for Sacramento), who at 6-foot-9 can conceivably play three spots on the floor. With the fourth pick of the draft, they added Hickson’s replacement, Tristan Thompson, who will be a bit of a project but has a nice back-to-the-basket game.
The Cavs still have some veteran presence to surround Irving with. F Antawn Jamison (18.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and C Anderson Varejao (9.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG) are quality NBA starters, and G Ramon Sessions (13.3 PPG, 5.2 APG) can take some of the ball-handling duties from Irving. With the length and athleticism of Casspi and SG Christian Eyenga (6.9 PPG) on the perimeter, they have a chance to be a solid defensive team.
StatFox Take: Cleveland was the NBA’s worst team by a significant margin last year, and they’re a lock for another year in the lottery. But by the second half of the season,this could be a team that no one wants to play. It will simply depend on how quickly Irving develops.
DETROIT PISTONS
2010-11 record: 30-52, 4th place in the Central Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
Just four years removed from a run of six straight conference finals appearances, the Pistons are blowing it up.
They released SG Richard Hamilton (14.1 PPG), and SF Tayshaun Prince (14.1 PPG) seems likely to be moved as well. But they are taking some positive steps forward.
The reign of John Kuester was an absolute nightmare, complete with back-to-back, 50-loss seasons for the first time since the mid-90’s and a reported player mutiny last winter. The most shocking statistic from their 2010-11 campaign might be the fact that Detroit, once the NBA’s prime example of team defense, ranked third-to-last in defensive efficiency last season.
Respected veteran coach Lawrence Frank should add some stability to a messy situation. Second-year C Greg Monroe (9.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG) is a perfect fit in Frank’s version of the Princeton offense. They have 6-foot-11 F Austin Daye (7.5 PPG, 40.1% from three) as a unique option to stretch the floor, and frankly G Ben Gordon (11.2 PPG) can’t play any worse than he did under Kuester. Whether or not they can retain restricted free agent G Rodney Stuckey (15.5 PPG, 5.2 APG)—a likelihood considering their ability to match any other offers he get—will go a long way towards their rebuilding process.
They reached for Kentucky PG Brandon Knight in the draft; he seems to be at least a year away from being a contributor.
StatFox Take: There are some nice pieces in Detroit, and Frank is the right man for the job. But this was the NBA’s most dysfunctional team last season, and there are a lot of scars that need to heal before they can take another step forward.
