Hoops Preview – Big East, Big Ten
2011-12 College Hoops Preview: Big East
By: Robert Livingston – StatFox
Go to www.statfox.com for the most complete analysis of statistics and trends available
The Big East may be the deepest conference in the nation, with four elite teams and up to six others that will be vying for a berth to the big dance. Syracuse, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Georgetown will also feature some of the top freshmen the country has to offer, making the conference must-watch TV. Although many will favor the Huskies to win the conference after winning the title last season, Syracuse is the smart Big East play with the most balanced squad.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Syracuse
2. Louisville
3. Pittsburgh
4. Connecticut
5. Marquette
6. Georgetown
7. Villanova
8. Cincinnati
9. St. John’s
10. Notre Dame
11. West Virginia
12. South Florida
13. Seton Hall
14. Rutgers
15. DePaul
16. Providence
SYRACUSE ORANGE
2010-11 SU Record: 77% (27-8)
2010-11 ATS Record: 46% (15-18)
2010-11 Over (Total): 45% (14-17)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 15/1
The Orange bring back most of their team from last year that disappointed relative to their talent. Leading scorer Kris Joseph and the starting backcourt of Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche form a solid nucleus. Although they will miss Rick Jackson who averaged a double-double, top recruit Rakeem Christmas, a shot-blocking presence in the lane, should help fill that void for them. He and fellow McDonald’s All-American guard Michael Carter-Williams headline another strong recruiting class for Jim Boeheim.
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
2010-11 SU Record: 71% (25-10)
2010-11 ATS Record: 61% (19-12)
2010-11 Over (Total): 41% (13-19)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 18/1
Although Louisville’s leading scorer from last season in Preston Knowles is gone, Rick Pitino should have no problem finding somebody to score on this team. Sharp-shooter Kyle Kuric and the backcourt of Peyton Siva and Chris Smith all averaged over nine points per game. Freshman Wayne Blackshear has an NBA-body at 6-foot-5, and is one of the best natural scorers in the class of 2011. Add him and fellow top recruit, power forward Chane Behanan to a team that finished tied for third in the conference last year, and this will be a well-coached powerhouse that nobody will look forward to playing.
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
2010-11 SU Record: 82% (28-6)
2010-11 ATS Record: 52% (15-14)
2010-11 Over (Total): 46% (13-15)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 20/1
Like Syracuse and Louisville, Pitt has a decent remaining core and brings in a few top freshmen to bolster the lineup. The gem is Canadian center Khem Birch, who will be instrumental in keeping the Panthers a top rebounding squad. Last season, Pitt was eighth in the nation with 39.8 boards per contest. And, fans need not worry about their backcourt with Ashton Gibbs returning for his senior season after knocking down 3.3 treys per game, making him a preseason favorite for Big East Player of the Year.
CONNECTICUT HUSKIES
2010-11 SU Record: 78% (32-9)
2010-11 ATS Record: 66% (23-12)
2010-11 Over (Total): 41% (14-20)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 20/1
The Huskies have four returning starters, but are missing the most important piece from their 2011 National Championship winning squad, Kemba Walker. UConn still has Jeremy Lamb (16.2 PPG in NCAA Tournament) and Alex Oriakhi (11 double-doubles), and Jim Calhoun received a big boost when Andre Drummond committed in August. The best center in the class of 2011 keeps the Huskies in the top tier of the Big East, rounding out four teams that could make their way into the nation’s top-10.
MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES
2010-11 SU Record: 60% (22-15)
2010-11 ATS Record: 58% (18-13)
2010-11 Over (Total): 33% (10-20)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
Even though the Golden Eagles are not in the same class as the top four Big East teams, they are strong and should be tourney bound. Senior Darius Johnson-Odom (15.8 PPG) should lead Marquette in scoring again on a team that has returning talent like Jae Crowder (11.8 PPG), but is void of top freshmen joining the mix.
GEORGETOWN HOYAS
2010-11 SU Record: 66% (21-11)
2010-11 ATS Record: 48% (15-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 43% (12-16)
Returning Starters: 1
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
If the Hoyas truly contend in this year’s Big East, it will be due to a talented group of freshmen, led by small forward Otto Porter. With senior Jason Clark the only double-digit scorer remaining (12.0 PPG), Georgetown and head coach John Thompson III will have to come up with a new offensive game-plan for this season.
VILLANOVA WILDCATS
2010-11 SU Record: 64% (21-12)
2010-11 ATS Record: 40% (12-18)
2010-11 Over (Total): 46% (13-15)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
With Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes having graduated, the Wildcats backcourt will look radically different this season and need a way to replace the 139 three-pointers they combined to make. Freshman recruit Tyrone Johnson will be instrumental in doing just that, who should take over the reins at point guard from game one to join Maalik Wayns (13.8 PPG) in the backcourt.
CINCINNATI BEARCATS
2010-11 SU Record: 74% (26-9)
2010-11 ATS Record: 55% (16-13)
2010-11 Over (Total): 36% (10-18)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
The Bearcats were decent last season, going 26-9 and 11-7 in the Big East. Forward Yancy Gates (11.9 PPG) and guard Dion Dixon (11.6 PPG), the team’s two leading scorers from last season, are both back for their senior seasons and an NCAA Tournament berth is definitely in the conversation for this team.
ST. JOHN’S RED STORM
2010-11 SU Record: 64% (21-12)
2010-11 ATS Record: 45% (14-17)
2010-11 Over (Total): 55% (16-13)
Returning Starters: 0
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 50/1
Nobody knows what to expect from the Red Storm this season after making it to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2002 last season and losing 10 seniors. Although their highly-rated recruiting class has been hurt by three of the recruits being declared academically ineligible for the first semester, they Johnnies still add six strong bodies (including two junior college transfers) that give them the potential to be dangerous.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH
2010-11 SU Record: 79% (27-7)
2010-11 ATS Record: 57% (17-13)
2010-11 Over (Total): 54% (14-12)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
The Fighting Irish will sorely miss Ben Hansbrough (18.4 PPG), but they still have forward Tim Abromaitis (15.4 PPG) to keep them steady in this transition year for head coach Mike Brey.
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
2010-11 SU Record: 64% (21-12)
2010-11 ATS Record: 43% (13-17)
2010-11 Over (Total): 48% (13-14)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 75/1
A team coached by Bob Huggins will always be competitive, especially one with forward Kevin Jones (13.1 PPG) on it. But with six raw freshmen, the Mountaineers will have a tough time sticking with the top guns in the Big East.
SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS
2010-11 SU Record: 30% (10-23)
2010-11 ATS Record: 53% (16-14)
2010-11 Over (Total): 52% (15-14)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
Many have the Bulls pegged to be in the cellar of the Big East this season after a 3-15 conference finish last year, but they could surprise some under the leadership of senior forward Augustus Gilchrist (13.4 PPG), a top player in the conference.
SETON HALL PIRATES
2010-11 SU Record: 42% (13-18)
2010-11 ATS Record: 48% (14-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 31% (8-18)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
The Pirates will miss their top two scorers from last season, Jeremy Hazell and Jeff Robinson, but they still have senior forward Herb Pope (9.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG), an elite forward who can rebound and block shots with the best of them.
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
2010-11 SU Record: 47% (15-17)
2010-11 ATS Record: 54% (14-12)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (13-13)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
The lone bright spot on the Rutgers squad this season will be local New Jersey recruit Myles Mack who should develop into one of the best point guards in the conference over time.
DePAUL BLUE DEMONS
2010-11 SU Record: 23% (7-24)
2010-11 ATS Record: 48% (14-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 57% (16-12)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1 (Field)
Forward Cleveland Melvin (14.3 PPG) is a force to be reckoned with entering his sophomore year, but he won’t get the help he needs to turn DePaul into a contender.
PROVIDENCE FRIARS
2010-11 SU Record: 47% (15-17)
2010-11 ATS Record: 39% (11-17)
2010-11 Over (Total): 62% (16-10)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
The Friars should expect to spend the year in the Big East cellar, trying to figure out how to replace the scoring production of Marshon Brooks (24.6 PPG).
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2011-12 College Hoops Preview: Big Ten
By: Robert Livingston – StatFox
Published: 10/25/2011 at 12:34:00 AM
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Unlike some other conferences, the Big Ten has a clear-cut favorite to come out on top with the Ohio State Buckeyes, led by one of the best players in the country in Jared Sullinger. This is not to discredit this conference’s depth though, with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Michigan State among teams that can definitely expect to be dancing come March. Additionally, some other teams may be surprisingly competitive despite low expectations, such as Indiana and Iowa. Ultimately, it will be another physical season of Big Ten hoops.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan State
5. Illinois
6. Minnesota
7. Indiana
8. Iowa
9. Purdue
10. Northwestern
11. Nebraska
12. Penn State
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
2010-11 SU Record: 92% (34-3)
2010-11 ATS Record: 53% (18-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 56% (19-15)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 8/1
Ohio State brings back three starters, including its top two scorers from last season in Jared Sullinger and William Buford. The forward Sullinger was a standout freshman and could win National Player of the Year honors this season after not declaring for the NBA Draft. The Buckeyes are one of the top teams in the nation and will be under good leadership with Thad Matta, who won’t be afraid to throw freshman point guard Shannon Scott into the fire right away. While the conference has a lot of depth, there is no doubt that Ohio State is the cream of the crop and should easily earn another conference title.
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
2010-11 SU Record: 60% (21-14)
2010-11 ATS Record: 73% (22-8)
2010-11 Over (Total): 57% (16-12)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 40/1
After almost upsetting Duke in the Round of 32 in last year’s NCAA Tournament, the Wolverines return a talented core of four starters to help them advance farther this year. Although they lost their leading scorer from last season in Darius Morris, Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.9 PPG) should be able to fill the scoring void. Add two talented freshmen into the mix with guards Carlton Brundidge and Trey Burke, this should be a difficult team to defend. Ohio State is the class of the conference, but Michigan has the most potential to give them a run for their money.
WISCONSIN BADGERS
2010-11 SU Record: 74% (25-9)
2010-11 ATS Record: 57% (17-13)
2010-11 Over (Total): 59% (17-12)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 60/1
Wisconsin has only two returning starters from last year’s squad, but one of them is senior guard Jordan Taylor, who averaged 18.1 PPG last season. Taylor is a deadly 3-point shooter (42.9%) and is also his team’s top returning rebounder (4.1 RPG) and assist man (4.7 APG). Jarrod Uthoff is a key recruit in Bo Ryan’s frontcourt, helping complete a Badgers’ squad that is fairly even with Michigan’s.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
2010-11 SU Record: 56% (19-15)
2010-11 ATS Record: 34% (11-21)
2010-11 Over (Total): 39% (13-20)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 40/1
Michigan State will miss Kalin Lucas, the engine of their offense last season, but that could pave the way for the Spartans frontcourt to shine. Forward Draymond Green is an inside and outside threat, knocking down more than one three-pointer per game last season while also pulling in 8.6 rebounds per contest. Small forward recruit Branden Dawson is one of the top recruits in the nation, and Tom Izzo always manages to turn his team into late-season contenders.
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
2010-11 SU Record: 59% (20-14)
2010-11 ATS Record: 52% (17-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (16-16)
Returning Starters: 1
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
After Michigan State, there is another drop in class within the conference, with Illinois heading the next tier. The Fighting Illini only have one starter coming back from last season, but are built for the future with a strong recruiting class. Center Nnanna Egwu, point guard Tracy Abrams, power forward Mike Shaw, and small forward Mycheal Henry are four very strong freshmen who should help juniors Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson shoulder the scoring load.
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
2010-11 SU Record: 55% (17-14)
2010-11 ATS Record: 36% (11-20)
2010-11 Over (Total): 48% (14-15)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
Minnesota unfortunately fell victim to a number of injuries last season, but brings back what should be one of the best frontcourts in the conference. Trevor Mbakwe averaged a double-double last season (13.9 PPG, 10.5 RPG), while Ralph Sampson III averaged over two blocks per game last season. If their guards can contribute, they will surprise.
INDIANA HOOSIERS
2010-11 SU Record: 38% (12-20)
2010-11 ATS Record: 40% (10-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (13-13)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
Indiana might be the surprise of the conference, at least in terms of defying expectations. The Hoosiers were a dreadful 3-15 in conference last year, but bring back four starters (Christian Watford, Verdell Jones III, Jordan Hulls and Maurice Creek) add one of the nation’s premier big men in Cody Zeller.
IOWA HAWKEYES
2010-11 SU Record: 36% (11-20)
2010-11 ATS Record: 47% (14-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 44% (12-15)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1
Iowa brings back four starters from last season including its top three scorers, led by Matt Gatens (12.6 PPG) in the backcourt. The Hawkeyes have the most potential down low, however, led by Melsahn Basabe who shot 57.2% from the floor last season, with 11.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per contest.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
2010-11 SU Record: 77% (26-8)
2010-11 ATS Record: 62% (18-11)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (15-15)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 75/1
This will be a transitional year for the Boilermakers – even though they return three starters, they will have to replace the 38.5 PPG that JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore combined for last season. Fifth-year senior Robbie Hummel is fully healthy after multiple knee surgeries, but 5-foot-9 Lewis Jackson (8.0 PPG) is the highest-scoring returnee from last season.
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
2010-11 SU Record: 59% (20-14)
2010-11 ATS Record: 54% (15-13)
2010-11 Over (Total): 57% (16-12)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1
With four returning starters, the Wildcats have a chance to fight their way out of the Big Ten cellar this season. The key will be John Shurna building on his success last season when he averaged 16.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, and made 43.4% of his three-point attempts.
NEBRAKSA CORNHUSKERS
2010-11 SU Record: 59% (19-13)
2010-11 ATS Record: 44% (11-14)
2010-11 Over (Total): 36% (9-16)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
Although the Cornhuskers have four returning starters, they do not have the talent to compete in the Big Ten on a nightly basis. They have hope down low with big man Jorge Brian Diaz (10.5 PPG), but this new addition to the conference will struggle mightily.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
2010-11 SU Record: 56% (19-15)
2010-11 ATS Record: 59% (17-12)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (14-14)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
The Nittany Lions will run into great difficulties this season finding ways to score without star guard Talor Battle (20.3 PPG), and three other departing players who combined for 27.0 PPG last season (Jeff Brooks, David Jackson and Andrew Jones).
