ACC and PAC 12 Hoops Preview
2011-12 College Hoops Preview: ACC
By: Robert Livingston – StatFox
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The Atlantic Coast Conference had last year’s preseason favorites in the Duke Blue Devils, and they might again this year in the North Carolina Tar Heels. But, this year’s conference is uncharacteristically shallow. Beyond the two Tobacco Road rivals, no other ACC team is expected to make a deep run in the NCAAs, as the other 10 teams have national championship odds set at 100-to-1 or greater. Still, as one of college basketball’s most storied conferences, there will always be competitive play and surprises, which should make for another exciting 2011-2012 season.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Florida State
4. NC State
5. Virginia Tech
6. Virginia
7. Miami (FL)
8. Georgia Tech
9. Clemson
10. Maryland
11. Boston College
12. Wake Forest
DUKE BLUE DEVILS
2010-11 SU Record: 87% (32-5)
2010-11 ATS Record: 56% (20-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 47% (17-19)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 15/1
The Blue Devils lost their three best scorers from last season in seniors Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, in addition to the top pick in the NBA Draft, Kyrie Irving. But head coach Mike Krzyzewski brings in one of the country’s top recruiting classes, headlined by shooting guard Austin Rivers. Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Tyler Thornton, and Rivers form one of the most dangerous backcourts in the nation, and if they can receive production in the paint from Mason and Miles Plumlee, they will be difficult to beat.
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
2010-11 SU Record: 78% (29-8)
2010-11 ATS Record: 49% (16-17)
2010-11 Over (Total): 44% (15-19)
Returning Starters: 5
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 7/2
After making it to the Elite Eight last season, the Tar Heels return five starters in Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Dexter Strickland and Kendall Marshall. But, they will have to find some playing time for two of the nation’s top recruits in power forward James McAdoo and shooting guard P.J. Hairston. McAdoo joins a North Carolina frontcourt that led the country in rebounding last season (42.6 rebounds per game). The Tar Heels were dominant at home last season (15-0) under the always successful head coach Roy Williams, and are a top contender nationally.
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
2010-11 SU Record: 68% (23-11)
2010-11 ATS Record: 59% (16-11)
2010-11 Over (Total): 41% (11-16)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
The Seminoles are always a tenacious defensive squad, but will they keep that identity without lockdown forward and team leading scorer Chris Singleton? Hopefully for Florida State, 6-foot-7 freshman Antwan Space will help the Seminoles remain one of the country’s top rebounding teams (13th last season). After North Carolina and Duke, they are the third-best team in the ACC.
NC STATE WOLFPACK
2010-11 SU Record: 48% (15-16)
2010-11 ATS Record: 40% (10-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (12-12)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
The Wolfpack might be the best value play in the conference, without a lot of hype and potential for an overwhelming frontcourt. Forward C.J. Leslie comes back for his sophomore season, and Richard Howell returns for his junior year. Last season, in only 18.2 minutes per game, Howell averaged 7.4 points and 6.5 rebounds per contest, showing his vast potential.
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
2010-11 SU Record: 65% (22-12)
2010-11 ATS Record: 46% (13-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (15-15)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
To truly contend in the ACC this year, developing guard Erick Green will have to pick up the scoring of Malcolm Delaney, who led the team in his senior season with 18.7 points per game. With one of the nation’s top recruiting classes, the team should have enough able bodies to fill the void left by the graduation of Jeff Allen in the frontcourt, who led the team in rebounding for all four of his seasons.
VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
2010-11 SU Record: 52% (16-15)
2010-11 ATS Record: 65% (17-9)
2010-11 Over (Total): 39% (9-14)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
The Cavaliers missed Mike Scott last year for 21 games after he suffered a season-ending ankle injury. But if he stays healthy in his fifth season he is a double-double machine who creates matchup troubles (15.9 PPG and 10.2 RPG last season) for almost any opponent.
MIAMI HURRICANES
2010-11 SU Record: 58% (21-15)
2010-11 ATS Record: 52% (15-14)
2010-11 Over (Total): 52% (16-15)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
Malcolm Grant is a great shooter (2.6 three-pointers per game last year), and the team can only get better in conference under former George Mason head coach Jim Larranaga. The Hurricanes went 43-69 (38%) in the ACC in the past seven years under Frank Haith.
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS
2010-11 SU Record: 42% (13-18)
2010-11 ATS Record: 40% (10-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 40% (10-15)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
The Yellow Jackets will miss Iman Shumpert, so junior Glen Rice Jr. and incoming freshman Julian Royal will need to step up, if THE team wants to improve on its 5-11 ACC finish last season.
CLEMSON TIGERS
2010-11 SU Record: 65% (22-12)
2010-11 ATS Record: 52% (15-14)
2010-11 Over (Total): 37% (10-17)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
Five-foot-9 Andre Young returns to guide the Tigers backcourt for his senior season, but the key for Clemson will be the development of head coach Brad Brownell in his second year at the helm.
MARYLAND TERRAPINS
2010-11 SU Record: 58% (19-14)
2010-11 ATS Record: 41% (11-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (13-13)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1
Expect a year of transition for the Terrapins in their first season without Gary Williams roaming the sidelines. Mark Turgeon is a good coach, but his squad will sorely miss rebounding monster Jordan Williams in the post.
BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES
2010-11 SU Record: 62% (21-13)
2010-11 ATS Record: 60% (18-12)
2010-11 Over (Total): 59% (17-12)
Returning Starters: 1
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
With nine freshmen and two transfers, this team has potential, but also a lot of room for growth. Expect them to take steps back before they move forward and gel as a team.
WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS
2010-11 SU Record: 25% (8-24)
2010-11 ATS Record: 35% (9-17)
2010-11 Over (Total): 59% (16-11)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1 (Field)
The Demon Deacons return three of their four double-digit scorers from last season in Travis McKie, C.J. Harris and J.T. Terrell, but that core led them to a miserable 8-24 record last season. Unless they surprise with some early season fight, play against these bottom feeders.
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PAC 12 HOOPS PREVIEW
This year’s Pacific-12 has five teams that should be on the national radar – UCLA, Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington. Although none of them project to be among the best of the best in the country, they are five well-rounded squads that should make the NCAA Tournament and cause havoc once they are there. The conference has two new members with Colorado and Utah, but neither team will factor into the race. Ultimately, play on the Bruins to take this year’s Pac-12 on the back of Reeves Nelson, who should surprise the nation with a breakout season.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. UCLA
2. Arizona
3. California
4. Oregon
5. Washington
6. Arizona State
7. USC
8. Stanford
9. Colorado
10. Oregon State
11. Washington State
12. Utah
UCLA BRUINS
2010-11 SU Record: 68% (23-11)
2010-11 ATS Record: 53% (18-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 49% (16-17)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 60/1
The Bruins finished a decent 23-11 last season and bring back the key to that success in Reeves Nelson. The 6-foot-8 forward averaged 13.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game last season while making buckets at a 57% clip. Joshua Smith brings his mountainous self back to school (6-foot-10, 305 pounds) eager to build on a strong freshman campaign (10.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG). Freshman shooting guard Normal Powell and senior Lazeric Jones should be able to replace some of the scoring production that left with Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt, and this team should not miss a beat as the favorites in the Pac-12.
ARIZONA WILDCATS
2010-11 SU Record: 79% (30-8)
2010-11 ATS Record: 57% (20-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 52% (17-16)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 60/1
The Wildcats knocked off No. 1 seed Duke in the NCAA Tournament, but the key to that success is now gone. The team’s two leading scorers, Derrick Williams and Lamont Jones, are both departed for this new-look Arizona team that returns its other three starters with Kyle Fogg, Solomon Hill and Jesse Perry. Fogg could be primed for a breakout season, having hit 50 treys last year as a junior. With Josiah Turner, one of the nation’s top recruits, stepping in to run the point, this potent offensive attack will challenge the Bruins for Pac-12 supremacy.
CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS
2010-11 SU Record: 55% (18-15)
2010-11 ATS Record: 48% (15-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 73% (22-8)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
California went only 18-15 last season, but the Bears bring back four starters, including their three top scorers, all of whom averaged double-digit points. Leading that crew is senior guard Jorge Gutierrez, who averaged 14.6 points, 4.5 assists and 1.6 steals per contest. Although they do not add any top freshmen to the equation, that three-man core of Gutierrez, Harper Kamp (14.2 PPG) and Allen Crabbe (13.4 PPG) definitely places them in the conference’s top tier.
OREGON DUCKS
2010-11 SU Record: 54% (21-18)
2010-11 ATS Record: 51% (19-18)
2010-11 Over (Total): 53% (17-15)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
This is the surprise pick so far, as the Ducks did not even receive a vote in the pre-season ESPN/USA today poll. But, with three starters coming back including E.J. Singler (11.7 PPG), this team will be surprisingly dangerous. Shooting guard Jabari Brown, one of the top freshmen in the country, will be a key for them as well – as one of the best shooters in his class, he has the potential to create nightmares for opposing coaches.
WASHINGTON HUSKIES
2010-11 SU Record: 69% (24-11)
2010-11 ATS Record: 50% (16-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 45% (14-17)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 75/1
The Huskies lose their leading scorer from last season in Isaiah Thomas, but bring back two key starters and add a top recruit. Guard Abdul Gaddy (50% FG) was a breakout player in the conference last year prior to ending his season early due to injury, while seven-footer Aziz N’Diaye is a defensive force inside. Additionally, Tony Wroten Jr. is one of the country’s top point guard recruits, making this the last of the Pac-12 teams that should expect dance come March.
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
2010-11 SU Record: 39% (12-19)
2010-11 ATS Record: 39% (11-17)
2010-11 Over (Total): 46% (12-14)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
Although Arizona State only brings back two starters from last year’s team, one of them is Trent Lockett, one of the most dangerous players in the conference. He led the team with 13.4 PPG last season, and also contributed 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per contest. At 6-foot-5, the swingman creates matchup problems and could help the Sun Devils compete late in the season.
USC TROJANS
2010-11 SU Record: 56% (19-15)
2010-11 ATS Record: 50% (15-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 33% (10-20)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1
USC will sorely miss the NBA-bound Nikola Vucevic, but returning starters Jio Fontan (10.5 PPG, 3.9 APG) and Maurice Jones (9.9 PPG) form a respectable core. They are nowhere near the same class as the Pac-12 elite, but the Trojans should be able to defeat weaker conference foes.
STANFORD CARDINAL
2010-11 SU Record: 48% (15-16)
2010-11 ATS Record: 43% (12-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 48% (12-13)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
Even though last year’s leading scorer in Jeremy Green is gone, big man Josh Owens returns for his senior season after scoring 11.6 PPG on 58% shooting last season. The Cardinal went a measly 7-11 in conference last year, but should receive a boost from the addition of point guard Chasson Randle and the continued development of the rest of their team.
COLORADO BUFFALOES
2010-11 SU Record: 63% (24-14)
2010-11 ATS Record: 53% (17-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 63% (19-11)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
This will be a very different looking Buffaloes squad without Alec Burks (20.5 PPG) and last year’s other three double-digit scorers. Six-foot-7 guard Andre Roberson is the leading scorer returning from last season with 6.7 points per game, and will have to turn his athletic frame into big-time production for Colorado to contend in its first year in the Pac-12.
OREGON STATE BEAVERS
2010-11 SU Record: 36% (11-20)
2010-11 ATS Record: 50% (12-12)
2010-11 Over (Total): 56% (14-11)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
The Beavers struggled mightily last season, going 5-13 in the conference and bring back most of their team from last season. They will have some potential though, if junior guard Jared Cunningham can develop further after averaging 14.2 points and 2.8 steals per game in his sophomore campaign.
WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS
2010-11 SU Record: 63% (22-13)
2010-11 ATS Record: 56% (18-14)
2010-11 Over (Total): 53% (17-15)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
This will be a rough transitional year for the Cougars after losing Klay Thompson (21.6 PPG) to the NBA. Senior guard Faisal Aden (12.7 PPG) will have to shoulder the load for a team that will be fighting to keep its way out of the conference cellar.
UTAH UTES
2010-11 SU Record: 42% (13-18)
2010-11 ATS Record: 45% (13-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (14-14)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 300/1
Utah will finish last in its first season in the Pac-12, lacking the talent to pull out any surprise wins against conference foes. Gunner Josh Watkins (14.5 PPG, 27% 3-point FG) is not shy when it comes to shooting the rock, but the Utes will need 7-foot-3 center David Foster, who averaged over three blocks per game last season, to produce some offense.
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