2016 Super Bowl Futures ; Strasburg Should Go Over

seahawks

2016 Super Bowl Futures Betting Guide

By: Glenn Greene – Exclusive to osga.com

 

We’ve barely forgiven Coach Pete Carroll for a memorable Super Bowl play and our outlets in Las Vegas and some top online sportsbooks have already called an
early line for next year’s trophy. Is it time to take advantage of possible oversight in bookmaker judgment or better wait till perhaps next November to make
the decision? Overall, I say excercising patience is the proven path but in the case of a few NFL teams we might want to consider plunking down a few dollars
for the 2016 Super Bowl Champion ASAP.

For example, the Super Bowl future betting odds listed at well-known sportsbooks like Bovada.lv are what oddsmakers choose to offer the market. They are not
similar to a “pari-mutuel” pool as in horse racing, where a 15-30% vigorish is taken and odds set per customer action. Adding up player investment they are
quite favorable to the house, knowing the majority of NFL teams have no legitimate chance but do take loyal home team support and long-shot chance action.

Teaming Up
Therfore, I cannot fathom why anyone would waste their money wagering the Tennesse Titans at 150-1 to win the Super Bowl or Jacksonville Jaguars at only 200-1.
An actuary might put their chances closer to 50,000-1 or the odds of Ray Rice winning the next NFL Man of the Year trophy. But if someone is foolish enough to
buy it, sportsbooks will post it.

Super Bowl future betting Conversely, the favorites may not offer the best “value” on the menu either. Currently the Seattle Seahawks are listed at 11/2 odds but
many questions must be answered to put their chances of winning above a dozen legitimate contenders. Will Marshawn Lynch be equally motivated next season or
will his off-field antics continue to be a distraction? Have the Seahawks indeed found their necessary receiver tandem? Will the Super Bowl finish haunt them
come playoff time next season with naysayers and the media breathing down their back?

The New England Patriots are a tempting 6/1 but we’ve learned the odds are against any team repeating in the Super Bowl. Perhaps that was part of a curse
against the Seahawks at the goal line this season?

If you’re speculating for good value and want to take a risk now, the oddsmakers seem to have done their homework. The “what have you done for me lately” factor
is very evident with the Denver Broncos a surprising 14-1 selection while Peyton Manning makes his decision to stay on board or retire. The Broncos playoff flop
is also echoed in the Philadelphia Eagles future odds, which have them as a semi-longshot at 22-1. We recall the Birds not even making the playoffs last season
while many were discussing a #1 NFC seeding on December 1st. Questions remain if injured QB Nick Foles will be their healthy #1 starter again and can they
compete with the Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

Speaking of the Packers, they are a current second betting choice in the NFC at 7/1 and overall third choice in the NFL to win the Super Bowl. They may not
remain there and likely could rise in odds if last season’s betting pattern repeats again this season.

Timing Up
America’s Team, of course that would be the Dallas Cowboys jumped out to an early 6-1 season and captured the public’s wagering hearts by dropping from a 30-1
outsider to as little as 3/1 second choice for the Super Bowl in mid-October. The Cowboys are now 12/1 for the 2016 prize and identical circumstances could
happen again with a strong start and loyal Cowboy bettors onboard. The major reason why it’s usually best to WAIT until at least near mid-season to investing in
Super Bowl future wagering.

Let’s remember football fans, it was none other than the Seattle Seahawks who lost to the St. Louis Rams 28-26 on October 19th to give them a hugely
disappointing 3-3 record and many articles claiming they were on a serious decline. Their Super Bowl Future Odds climbed to as high as 10-1 in Vegas and some
notable offshore sportsbook outlets.

Only an unforgettable, poorly-timed slant pass with 30 Super Bowl seconds to go prevented some from cashing one of the best foresighted bets ever. Ouch . . .
hope you weren’t one of the unfortunate victims of that historical judgement. But maybe you can brag you’re a loyal Tom Brady supporter. The Pats chances were
deflated by many in Kansas City when the Chiefs destroyed the Pats 41-14 on September 29th. Their odds subsequently zoomed from 3/1 to 6/1 the following week.

So if you’re going to play Super Bowl Futures, like the stock market, the big winner is often not just who to invest on but also WHEN.

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steve

Prop Bets – Even Stephen

By Matt Zylbert
VegasInsider.com
Strasburg Entering a Stratosphere of his Own

As sports gambling has evolved over the past decade, more and more options have become available for bettors to partake in. One such popular newer feature that
has emerged in recent years is the ability to bet on certain player statistics, with Vegas providing lines related to what the individual is anticipated to
produce.

Of course, it could range from a batter’s number of hits throughout a given season, or a pitcher’s amount of wins they end up with, presenting potential
substantial value if you latch onto the right player. Entering 2015, Vegas has provided certain intriguing props in this regard, while underrating a certain
pitcher who just very well may make the leap this year in becoming baseball’s next top hurler.

In June of 2010, Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg made his much-anticipated Major League debut — when he toyed around with the Pirates and struck out 14
over seven outstanding innings — and it was immediately determined by the general consensus that the next big starting pitcher had officially arrived.

Five years later, that sentiment is still very much up in the air while dripping with uncertainty. And it’s not because of Strasburg, who, despite undergoing
Tommy John surgery a few years back, has enjoyed desirable success thus far into his big league career. However, being arguably the most hyped pitcher for an
entire generation, the assumption was that Strasburg would automatically dominate every five days and collect NL Cy Young awards pretty much at will.

To date, Strasburg has not garnered his first Cy Young accolade just yet, nor has he been the same completely overpowering pitcher every five days that was on
display five years ago on that early June night.

At the same time, that makes him very advantageous concerning a very illuminating season prop bet for the right-hander set forth by the linesmakers for the
upcoming campaign: Strasburg Over 14½ Wins in 2015.

First off, season-long props can be very tricky, especially for pitchers. Obviously, the injury risk is always a dangerous possibility, and Vegas never shows
any sympathy in such cases, as the action will stand as long as said player is active and playing from the beginning. That risk is especially concerning for
starting pitchers, who are seemingly beginning to drop like flies in this day and age.

Luckily, in the case of Strasburg, he’s already been through that rodeo, and given how careful the team was in his recovery, the odds are in your favor for him
to continue to remain healthy. In fact, Strasburg has made 30 or more starts in the two ensuing seasons since, and he’s coming off a campaign in which he topped
the 200-inning plateau for the first time. Thus, you can feel confident about the outlook of his health, plus the number of wins set by Vegas is low enough
where even if he misses a few assignments because of wear and tear, accumulating 15 victories is definitely a number he can still hit decisively.

When you look past the injury element, there’s a ton of promise here for a guy that still exhibits the potential of being the best pitcher in all of baseball.
While that title currently belongs to Clayton Kershaw without an argument, Strasburg is one of the select few capable of surpassing him when all is said and
done. And that journey towards the top of the starting pitcher mountain possibly could culminate as early as this season.

On the surface, Strasburg has recorded 15 wins once before in his five-year big league career, accomplishing that feat in 2012, which, ironically, was the same
year the Nationals shut him down early because of post-Tommy John concerns in one of the most controversial baseball decisions of the modern era (given their
legitimate World Series aspirations that year). He’s also registered a season in which he won 14 games, doing so last year while posting a very solid 3.14 ERA
and 1.12 WHIP, which are right in line with his quality career numbers (3.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).

Beyond that exists the really strong evidence why you should invest in Washington’s prized 26-year-old and how many games he wins in ’15. The glaring trait, of
course, is his remarkable talent in overpowering hitters. Last year, Strasburg picked up his first National League strikeout crown, as he punched out 242
hitters in 215 innings, and has always been a decorated strikeout artist. This is evident in the fact that Strasburg actually leads all active starting pitchers
with a ridiculous 10.34 K/9 ratio, which, if he continues to maintain that pace, would place him second all-time only behind Randy Johnson, who has the highest
mark in Major League history with 10.61 K/9. Given his filthy repertoire of pitches, it is probable Strasburg continues along on such a dominant path in the
strikeouts department.

Secondly, he’s pitching deeper into games. Last season, Strasburg registered the highest innings-per-start of his career, which could be tied to a number of
encouraging factors. The most obvious, of course, is the trust the Nationals are finally giving him, as he becomes farther and farther separated from his
aforementioned Tommy John procedure. With the kid gloves finally off permanently, the gifted right-hander has more leeway in what he can do on the mound and how
long he does it for.

Furthermore, there was a notable trend from Strasburg’s overall season performance last year that allowed him to pitch deeper into games: He was throwing more
strikes. In fact, he was throwing strikes approximately 67 percent of the time, which is up a few percentage points from the prior two seasons. It was also one
of the highest marks in the NL last year.

So, what does that mean? Well one, it indicates he’s walking less guys, as he issued free passes to five percent of all hitters he faced, compared to well over
seven percent in the previous two seasons. In the process, that means he’s decreasing his amount of high pitch-count situations, which also enables him to last
longer in his starts.

Tied to that, Strasburg also raised his percentage of first-pitch strikes, which is a pretty underrated rhythm, considering the more times you’re ahead in the
count, the more freedom you have over that given count when working against the batter. Furthermore, it also forces hitters to expand their zone, which is
exactly what Strasburg was making opponents do. That’s why Strasburg’s O-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone) was as high as it was
(35.3 percent), which actually placed him in the top ten in all of baseball in that category.

Oh, and let’s not forget he pitches for the Washington Nationals, who are obviously one of the distinct favorites to reach the World Series. There’s that, and
the key component that they play in a relatively weaker division, at least as far as offense goes. The Braves and Phillies are both in rebuilding mode, and
while the Mets and Marlins are expected to legitimately compete this year, the fact remains that they don’t exactly possess the most intimidating of batting
orders. Thus, Strasburg can capitalize on facing his division foes frequently.

As established and dominant as he already is, Strasburg is only going up. And he’s already far, far up compared to most Major League pitchers. With the
anticipated continued progress of No. 37, you can expect his number of wins to soar as well, making it likely he garners 15 wins and beyond. This is probably
the safest player prop bet to invest in for the 2015 Major League Baseball season.

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